Iran has been facing significant economic challenges in recent years, including high inflation, unemployment, and a plummeting currency. These issues have led to widespread social unrest and dissatisfaction among the Iranian population, who have been protesting the regime’s handling of the economy.
In response to this situation, economic experts within Iran have been warning about the critical economic situation and its potential social consequences. These experts have been pointing to various factors contributing to the economic crisis, including mismanagement, corruption, and economic sanctions imposed due to the regime’s persistence in continuing its malign activities, including global terrorism, domestic human rights violations, and the controversial missile and nuclear programs.
Despite these warnings, the Iranian government has been slow to implement significant reforms and is suppressing dissenting voices. This has created a volatile situation in which economic instability and social unrest continue to escalate.
These analysts warn regime leaders of a social explosion in the new year, a situation much worse than the protests of recent years.
These individuals base their statements on economic indicators, revealing a dire economic collapse. Several economists have expressed concerns about impending hyperinflation. Despite the regime’s claims that inflation hovers around 50%, the actual rate is believed to be significantly higher. In fact, some economists estimate that inflation could be as high as 60-70%.
In March of last year, the Central Bank revealed that point-to-point inflation had reached 67%. Certain essential items such as food experienced inflation rates of 70-80%, while others, such as housing, saw rates as high as 200%. Official statistics from the regime indicate that the housing rate has increased 450-fold between 1993 and 2021, a 28-year period. However, some experts contest this statistic as being minimal, claiming that housing prices have increased 650-fold during the same period.
Despite the regime’s assertion that it has raised workers’ salaries by 27%, the inflation rate of nearly 60% means that the living conditions of the workers are worse than before.
In the previous year, workers and wage earners experienced a 50% decrease in their purchasing power, even though they received a monthly salary of $253. This was primarily due to the devaluation of the official currency, which effectively reduced their salaries by almost $122.
When discussing poverty in Iran, it is worth noting that 80% of the population lives below the poverty line, with more than half of this group falling below the absolute poverty line. This means that many individuals are unable to afford even the most basic necessities such as bread.
In an interview with state media, Saeed Laylaz, an economist associated with the so-called reformist faction, referenced the uprisings in 2022 and cautioned that similar events could transpire this year.
In the interview, Laylaz opens by stating that he believes there were no positive developments in 2022. He goes on to describe the year as turbulent and bitter for the Iranian people, characterized by rising prices and increased distrust of the regime.
He added that the protests have ‘created exorbitant costs both domestically and internationally’ for the regime. Then he adds that ‘the restoration of the cloudy atmosphere will take a lot of time and energy from the country.’
Laylaz then conveyed his disappointment with the current state of the regime, lamenting, “Regrettably, things have reached a point where some of the damages and costs are irreparable, making it exceedingly challenging to rectify the situation.”
Over the past few months, numerous regime members have called upon Ebrahim Raisi to dismiss his cabinet members because of the country’s economic turmoil and disintegration in the hope of preventing new protests.
In a recent development, Raisi was compelled to dismiss Masoud Mirkazemi, the head of the Program and Budget Organization, as well as Javad Sadatinejad, the Minister of Jihad for Agriculture, from their positions in his cabinet.
In conclusion, Iran’s economy is in a dire state, with high inflation, unemployment, and a plummeting currency. Despite warnings from economic experts within Iran about the critical economic situation and its potential social consequences, the regime has been slow to implement significant changes.
As a result, there is widespread social unrest and dissatisfaction among the Iranian population. The situation has become so volatile that many experts predict an impending hyperinflation that could lead to a social explosion much worse than the protests of recent years.
The dismissal of government officials by Raisi may be an attempt to prevent new protests and restore stability, but it will not address the fundamental economic issues facing Iran.
