While Iranian officials consistently discuss the augmentation of oil exports and the subsequent increase in oil revenues, the Parliament Research Center highlighted in a report that, during the initial seven months of the Persian calendar year, 45% of the oil revenues outlined in the budget law were not obtained.
According to one of its recent reports, the Research Center revealed that, contrary to the 2023 budget law, which anticipated earnings of 351 trillion tomans from oil, gas, and gas condensate exports in the first seven months, only 195 trillion tomans have been realized from oil revenues during this period.
This amount of oil income indicates that the regime has only managed to attain 55% of the predetermined income from oil during the first seven months of this year. In practical terms, 45% of the projected oil income has not been realized.
In the 2023 budget law, the income from the export of oil, gas, and gas condensates was set at a total of 603 trillion tomans.
Given that only 55% of the expected income from the export of oil, gas, and gas condensates in the budget law was realized in the first seven months of this year, the estimated total income from the sale of these materials until the end of 2023 is now equivalent to 331 trillion tomans. Nevertheless, the regime still anticipates realizing 437 trillion tomans of the 603 trillion tomans set for oil revenue by the end of the year.
In any case, the failure to realize a substantial part of the expected income from the sale and export of oil, gas, and condensates practically results in an increase in the regime’s budget deficit in the final months of the year.
In a report released in November of this year, the Research Center disclosed that, during the first four months of this year, only 48% of the oil revenue outlined in the country’s budget, including exports and domestic sales, was earned.
This is despite regime officials repeatedly discussing the augmentation of Iran’s oil exports, with Oil Minister Javad Oji claiming a 50% increase in income from oil exports in July. During a meeting with the representatives of the regime’s parliament, Oji also stated that ‘both the oil sales situation has improved and the amounts we had in some countries have been released.’
During the review of the 2023 budget bill, the Research Center cautioned against the non-realization of anticipated revenues, especially in the oil sector.
While the regime’s budget bill sets the daily oil export amount at 1.35 million barrels, the Research Center emphasizes that the daily oil export for the next year is likely 150,000 barrels less than the government’s forecast, amounting to 1.2 million barrels per day.
Furthermore, the institution’s report underscores that the price of oil next year is projected to be around $65 per barrel, as opposed to the $70 predicted in the budget bill. These factors, namely the decrease of 150,000 barrels in daily oil exports and a $5 decrease in the price per barrel, are expected to lead to the non-realization of oil revenues and an increase in the budget deficit in the next year.
Presently, a significant portion of Iran’s oil income is channeled to individuals and companies inside and outside Iran under the banner of ‘circumventing sanctions,’ effectively being ‘wasted.’
Additionally, because the regime predominantly exports most of its oil to China, it grants special discounts to Chinese companies for importing oil from Iran. In practice, this reduces the price of Iran’s oil exports compared to other oil-exporting countries.
In a report dated December 8, Etemad newspaper emphasized that although Iran’s oil income in the first eight months of 2023 amounted to $29 billion, ‘about a third of the oil income was wasted in the process of circumventing the sanctions.’
The newspaper reported that ‘the value of oil exports, including crude oil and gas condensate, in the first eight months of the year was $29 billion,’ but in practice, only ‘$20 billion’ reached Iran. Approximately $9 billion, equivalent to ‘a third of oil export earnings,’ was ‘wasted’ to circumvent sanctions.
The report also highlights the emergence of multi-billion-dollar financial corruption cases in the course of circumventing sanctions, similar to ‘Babak Zanjani’ and his accomplices in the then government, who appropriated a part of the oil revenues under the title of ‘circumventing sanctions.’ In practice, the government covers ‘the cost of circumventing sanctions’ from the pockets of the Iranian people.
