The most recent report from Iran’s real estate transaction registration system indicates a noticeable decline in housing transactions in Tehran, both in comparison to the same period last year and when compared to October.
In November, housing transactions saw a nearly 4% decrease compared to October, with a total of 2,912 houses being traded. This represents a stark drop of over 60% compared to November of the previous year, when 7,359 houses were traded in Tehran.
The 20th district of Tehran experienced the lowest housing transactions in November, with only 25 houses changing hands in that period. In contrast, the district five had the highest number of transactions, totaling 437 housing deals.
Examining statistics for the year ending on December 1st reveals a significant decrease in housing transactions, particularly in the 12th district of Tehran, where over 74% of the transactions occurred within the year.
Interestingly, the 19th district of Tehran demonstrated the lowest decrease in housing sales and purchase statistics during the same period, with a negative rate of 26%.
Despite statistical evidence indicating a stagnation in the Tehran housing market, government media outlets, such as the state news agency IRNA, Tasnim news agency, and Kayhan newspaper, have reported, citing the central bank, an average decrease in housing prices in Tehran for November.
However, experts argue that the purported decrease in prices is primarily due to market stagnation. Kianoosh Gudarzi, the head of the Real Estate Consultants Union, confirmed this in an interview with ISNA news agency, stating that the real estate market has been in a complete recession since March.
Gudarzi highlighted the downturn in the real estate market and noted that the income of real estate consultants is now lower than the average income of employees. He expressed concern over the potential sharp decline in the number of real estate consultants and license revocation if the market recession persists, anticipating negative consequences for the country’s economy and the livelihoods of those working in the profession.
Approximately 250,000 licensed real estate consultants operate in Iran, and a decrease in their income directly and indirectly affects the livelihoods of three to four million people, according to Gudarzi.
Contrary to reports of declining prices, the latest Central Bank of Iran report confirms a significant increase in housing prices. In October of this year, the average purchase and sale price of one square meter of residential infrastructure in Tehran reached about 76 million tomans, reflecting an 80% increase compared to the same period last year when the average price was around 44 million tomans.
These statistics underscore the growing disparity between people and homeownership. A previous report from Iran’s Statistics Center on ‘Purchasing Power and Waiting Time to Own a House’ highlighted that, at current average prices, a minimum-wage worker would need to work for 178 years and save a portion of their income monthly to afford an 80-square-meter apartment.
On a national scale, housing prices have surged 3.8 times compared to 2021, while wage growth has only been 2.11 times. In simpler terms, the waiting time for a minimum-wage worker to become a homeowner has increased from 99 years in 2021 to 178 years in 2023. This indicates a concerning trend of housing becoming increasingly unattainable for a significant portion of the population.
