While some officials in the Iranian regime assert that the housing market has stabilized in recent days, the challenging situation faced by tenants in the capital contradicts the claim of falling prices. A 150% increase in rent this year has transformed Tehran into a difficult living situation, leading to forced migration among tenants.
Statistical data reveals that rent inflation has broken records in the last two years, surpassing the general inflation level in the country. In the fall of 2020, rent point inflation soared to 53.6%, signifying that households in urban areas spent 53.6% more on rent compared to the fall of 2021. By the fall of 2022, rent point inflation in urban areas reached 46%, with seasonal inflation standing at 16.8%.
Recent statistics indicate that, on average, approximately 70% of the income of every Iranian household is allocated to housing rent. In the south of Tehran, a full mortgage for a 50-square-meter house in the ‘Simetry Jey’ neighborhood costs 450 million tomans, as per the latest rental situation statistics.
In the January inflation report, the Statistics Center of Iran reported a 3.1% growth rate in monthly housing price inflation.
The persistence of price growth in the first month of the winter season, typically a period of falling prices in previous years, once again highlights the challenge faced by citizens to remain in their residential areas, especially in big cities like Tehran, leading to forced relocations.
Statistics from April 2023 indicated that the annual growth rate of marginalization in the capital of Iran has reached between 4% and 5%.
Housing experts predict that the suburbs of Tehran will equal the main part of the capital within the next 20 years.
In the early 1980s, Tehran had five to six satellite cities; today, it boasts about 40 satellite cities that are inseparable from Tehran.
More than half of Tehran’s population resides in unstable contexts, with lower city services and quality of life compared to the city’s average standards. A significant portion of the population is homeless or reliant on renting. The regime appears unconcerned about the worsening conditions and the social, economic, and safety issues facing people in these areas.
Over 15 years have passed since the approval of the so-called ‘Comprehensive Plan to Control the Population of Tehran,’ yet only 10% of the city’s depleted areas have been renewed. The presented statistic claiming 45% of renovations is misleading, as it fails to mention that it reduced the statistics of total worn-out areas from 145 km to 32 km, signifying a disaster for half of Tehran’s population.
Another proposed housing policy in the Comprehensive Plan is the lack of belief in spatial balance, resulting in an imbalance in population density in Tehran. For instance, areas like Shahrak-e Gharb have a density of about 30 to 50 people per hectare, while in Hashemi Street in District 10, the population density reaches about 1,000 people per hectare—roughly 20 times the ratio seen in the most luxurious cities worldwide, and this situation is legally established.
Despite Tehran’s relatively low average population density of 110 to 120 people per hectare when the population is divided by its area, significant variations exist within different regions, where some areas have half the average population density, while others have 10 times the average.
Today, Tehran has reached a point where people are reported to be living on rooftops and in multi-family shared homes. Advertisements for basements without light in New Tehran, covering an area of 9 square meters with damp walls, ask for 150 million tomans with a monthly rent of 3 to 4 million tomans. Some even place containers and trailers on roofs and rent them out.
The primary crisis in Tehran today revolves around housing, impacting its economic, social, cultural, health, and psychological dimensions. Tehran has become a city with precarious living conditions, marked by deteriorating urban fabric regularly compounded by the government’s inability to produce housing at the same rate it wears out annually. The alarming feature of Tehran is marginalization, with an annual marginalization rate of about 4.5-5%. In other words, a new city is added to the outskirts of Tehran every 20 years.
The reality is that housing in Iran accounts for almost half of its economy, while in 2023, only ten percent of the American economy was linked to the housing sector. Homelessness and poor housing conditions often serve as roots for crime. Almost 20% of the population and about 15% of the country’s housing are concentrated in Tehran. Some municipal areas lack knowledge about the population and quality of life in their managed areas.
