Insider news & Analysis in Iran

While US policy towards Iran is in the middle of a major overhaul, senior politicians should be aware that the upcoming Presidential elections in Iran will not result in a change of either domestic or foreign policy.

Amir Basiri, an Iranian human rights activist, wrote in the Washington Examiner: “The so-called election to be held in Iran will be neither free nor fair. However, this development bears major significance due to a series of political, economic and social crises this regime is facing internationally and domestically.” 

He asserted that although this election will not change the Regime’s policies, it could spell an end to the Regime itself; an idea that was already deliberated by Regime experts earlier this month.

Last week, former Italian foreign minister Giulio Terzi and the Foreign Affairs Chairman for the Iranian opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), Mohammad Mohaddessin took part in an online conference regarding Iran’s current crises.

Terzi explained that the Regime has failed to resolve any of its economic or social dilemmas since the signing of the nuclear deal, despite increased funding from foreign investors and the release of frozen assets held abroad.

This is because the money was spent on terrorism and war, so as a result, the Iranian Regime should not be given any further sanctions relief.

Basiri wrote:  “Any collaboration by the West with Tehran, an issue currently under consideration by Washington, will only render further support by Tehran for terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism across the Middle East, as seen in Syria, through the notorious Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

The West should not expect great change from the Regime following the elections because, as Mohaddessin explains, the presidency lacks any real power in Iran.

He said: "Any flow of state of affairs in the clerical regime is in the hands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his office, and the IRGC … Elections in the clerical regime are power sharing between various factions of the brutal regime. It is also about various factions' share in plundering the Iranian people's wealth."

Terzi said: "One should not expect a major shift in Tehran's policies after the elections. It will be a huge folly and total misguided approach by the West to pin any hope on the results of this election."

The two front-runners are Ebrahim Raisi, a confidant of the supreme leader and member of the death commission that sent 30,000 political prisoners to their deaths in 1988, and Hassan Rouhani, incumbent president who oversaw 3,000 executions, an increased crackdown on human rights, and secretly restarted the nuclear weapons programme during his four-year reign as President.

Both the conference members and Basiri warn about the dangers of the ‘moderate v hardliner’ myth that is being pushed by the Regime.

There is no substantial difference between the pair, both were approved by the Regime’s Guardian Council (a small group who controls who can and cannot run for President), both are mass-murderers, and both believe that there should be no separation of church and state.

If the international community chooses not to support the Regime, no matter who is elected, and chooses to work with the Resistance instead, this could spell the end for the Regime.

Mohaddessin concluded: "This is a totally new situation with new prospects, bringing the regime closer to its downfall."

 

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