Iran: The Cost of Expensive Gasoline That the Regime Paid

Iran: The Cost of Expensive Gasoline That the Regime Paid

On 15 November, when the Iranian government announced a hike in gasoline prices, they were all ready to deal with the protests, including the police, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the Basij, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS). But they did not calculate its political and economic costs or perhaps they made a miscalculation. In this note, we will take a brief look at the cost of expensive gasoline for the Iranian government.

In terms of Internet disconnection, NetBlocks estimated the daily loss associated with the Internet shutdown in Iran to be $369 million, equivalent to 4300 billion tomans. In a simple calculation, an eight-day Internet outage costs $2.952 billion, or 35.424 billion tomans.



The total damage reported so far is 35.734 billion tomans equivalent to $2.977 billion. That's equivalent to selling 40 million barrels of crude oil for $70 a barrel.


But more important than the economic cost was the political cost that the Iranian government was forced to pay. The cost was, according to Karaj’s Friday prayer leader, a poisoned chalice for the Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei by supporting his own government to increase the price of gasoline. A poisoned chalice that weakens him and his regime.

If Khamenei and the head of the three branches had predicted such a cost for their project, they would not have dared one percent to approach it.

But the anger of the people, which resulted from government looting and oppression of the people, disrupted all the calculations of the government and showed that the time of plundering and repressing the people is over, and every move in this way would have a huge cost for the regime. Yet the regime is not to able to pay that price and will move faster to the end.