Internal disputes among Iran’s top officials highlight structural weaknesses as international sanctions return.
Senior officials of Iran’s regime are increasingly turning against one another amid the return of UN sanctions and mounting crises, revealing the fear of looming consequences and deepening instability.
Since last Saturday, when UN sanctions were reinstated, prominent figures ranging from Hassan Rouhani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Saeed Jalili have intensified verbal and media confrontations.
Open tensions among Iran regime’s top officials are a classic indicator of a crumbling dictatorship. Political science literature identifies fractures at the top of governance as a critical structural factor in the collapse of authoritarian regimes—an observation now more evident than ever in Iran.
These divisions stem from consecutive failures across multiple arenas. Officials attempt to shift responsibility to one another as the regime falters. Iran has suffered setbacks in Lebanon, Hezbollah faces near-collapse, Hamas is weakened, Bashar al-Assad’s rule has been overthrown, Iranian regime forces have come under attack, and Revolutionary Guard commanders have been systematically eliminated.
With international sanctions reinstated, the so-called “Resistance Axis”—once boasting influence all the way to the Mediterranean—is now disintegrating. Formerly, Revolutionary Guard commanders proudly spoke of reaching Mediterranean shores; today, those boasts have evaporated.
In this context, internal cohesion no longer exists. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei repeatedly emphasizes unity, but regime figures no longer obey his directives. Many openly or subtly blame his policies for the current crises.
Criticism has also surged across social media, with former officials, ministers, and parliamentarians questioning the regime’s overall strategy. This schism reflects not merely internal disagreement but a fundamental shift in Iran’s domestic, regional, and international environment.
Domestically, the majority of the population no longer accepts the regime. Regionally, the regime faces repeated defeats. Globally, it encounters a political and economic coalition led by the U.S. and Europe, alongside the return of UN sanctions.
Khamenei has lost control over society and even subordinates within the regime. For instance, despite repeated directives on enforcing mandatory hijab, neither state institutions nor the public comply—highlighting severe structural weaknesses.
The regime also suffers from a “decision-making paralysis” regarding the sanctions. Some propose exiting the NPT or pursuing nuclear weapons, yet none have acted, fearing direct retaliation. This illustrates that, despite prior rhetoric, the regime lacks the courage to execute bold measures. Those who once threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz or leave the NPT now remain silent, deterred by potential consequences.
Economic pressures have pushed Iran to the brink. The free-market dollar has surpassed 114,000 tomans and is expected to rise further. Public trust in the regime—socially, economically, politically, and in security—is rapidly eroding.
Disputes among officials have reached the highest levels. Between Khamenei, Abbas Araghchi, Masoud Pezeshkian, Rouhani, Jalili, and Ahmadinejad, deep divisions have formed. Some advocate negotiations, while others insist on resistance. Even Pezeshkian’s New York trip to negotiate with the U.S. was undermined by Khamenei’s sudden opposition, rendering the effort futile.
This indecision and inability to manage crises is a hallmark of impending authoritarian collapse. In nearly 47 years, signs of the regime’s decay have never been so visible. Citizens have made their stance clear, and internal competition within the regime intensifies.
Ultimately, Iran’s regime is no longer in a position of power but trapped in “doubt, isolation, and deadlock.” A regime that once aspired to Mediterranean influence now struggles to maintain security within its own borders and faces paralysis in critical decision-making—an unmistakable signal of a dictatorship nearing its end.
