The re-election of Donald Trump has thrown Iran’s regime media and political circles into a state of unease and speculation. In the wake of his victory, factions within the government voice differing opinions on how to manage what they anticipate could be a volatile period for Iran. Some are pushing for negotiations, while others urge caution and emphasize resilience.
Calls for Negotiation
Some reformist figures have floated the idea of dialogue. In an interview with the state newspaper Entekhab on November 7, Nosratollah Tajik remarked, “He [Trump] is a businessman, and we can make a deal with him… but we have to see what concessions he wants.” This pragmatic tone reflects the belief that Trump’s transactional approach to politics might open a door for diplomacy, albeit with inevitable costs.
Warnings of Increased Pressure
Meanwhile, the state-run Etemad warned Iran’s leadership of the risks ahead, recalling Trump’s previous policy of “maximum pressure.” The November 7 editorial stated, “The history of Iran’s relationship with the Trump administration has many complications. Trump is expressing maximum pressure against Iran. In a situation where Trump, Netanyahu, and their European and regional allies will form a united front, Iran needs a new strategic design… There should be another policy.”
High-Level Diplomacy and Self-Reliance
Ali Larijani, adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and member of the Expediency Council, has also entered the discussion, urging for what he describes as “high-level diplomacy.” In a televised interview, he stated, “In politics, as the number of people, there are ways. If one way did not work, there is another. The important thing is the spirit. A nation with spirit is victorious; a nation that mourns and fears will not lead anywhere.” Larijani insists on resilience and adapting strategy, suggesting a combined approach of military strength and diplomacy to manage escalating tensions.
Larijani’s suggestion of “high-level diplomacy” indicates a guarded optimism toward engaging with Trump’s administration while hedging Iran’s bets with robust defenses and alliances.
Historical Complications and Lingering Sanctions
However, not all in the regime see diplomacy as a path forward. Commentator Foad Izadi reminded his audience that even during Biden’s presidency, which some anticipated would be more lenient, there was little relief for Iran. “Biden could have returned to the JCPOA, but he did not. And Trump, who himself withdrew from the JCPOA, will definitely not return to it,” Izadi said, cautioning against reliance on American leaders to solve Iran’s issues.
Izadi points to the ongoing sanctions and the Biden administration’s refusal to re-enter the JCPOA as indicators that diplomacy may not alleviate Iran’s pressures. He continued, “The fate of the Western supporters in Europe and Ukraine should be a lesson… that relying on American officials is not a good experience.”
A Return to the “Twelve Conditions”
It’s worth noting that during Trump’s previous administration, any negotiations with Iran were conditioned on the acceptance of twelve stipulations set out by then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in May 2018. These conditions included abandoning Iran’s nuclear ambitions, ending ballistic missile development, and ceasing support for regional militias and militant groups.
Iran’s leadership has resisted these conditions over the past six years. The country has intensified its military and missile programs and continued its support for regional proxies. Given the administration’s refusal to meet any of these demands, Larijani’s call for “high-level diplomacy” rings hollow to many observers.
Growing Frustration and Fear of Internal Unrest
The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence. For Iran’s leaders, the prospect of a second Trump term rekindles fears of renewed sanctions, external isolation, and potential internal unrest.
Some commentators believe that the primary concern within the regime isn’t just international pressure but the specter of popular uprisings, especially as economic challenges mount.
As various factions within Iran’s leadership debate the best path forward, one reality remains clear: Trump’s return to the White House signals another uphill battle for Iran’s regime. Whether through diplomacy, military strength, or internal resilience, Iran’s government faces complex and potentially existential challenges in the coming years.
