Iran regime’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has named the new Persian year with an economic focus: “Production Leap with the Presence of the People.” However, this declaration is met with skepticism from experts due to the country’s struggling economy.
Corruption and Mismanagement Blamed
Critics accuse the Iranian regime of widespread corruption and resource mismanagement. They point to the regime’s involvement in regional conflicts and support for terrorism as factors draining the national coffers. This, coupled with Khamenei’s past policies of privatization that primarily benefited regime insiders and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has led to a dire economic situation. According to the regime’s own figures, over 60% of the population lives below the poverty line.
Past Policies Raise Doubts
Experts point to Khamenei’s past economic policies as evidence for skepticism. These policies have resulted in factory closures, mass unemployment, and a lack of clear vision for producers. Business leaders like Mahmoud Najafiarab, head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, have pinpointed “structural problems” hindering growth. Keyvan Kashefi, another board member, predicts a difficult year due to government-imposed currency quotas that restrict business operations. Others, like Abbas Argon, warn of high inflation due to a lack of corrective action from the authorities.
“Presence of the People” – A Question Mark
Khamenei’s call for the “presence of the People” raises doubts. In the past, this phrase has been used to justify privatization policies that enriched regime insiders, not the general population. Experts emphasize the need for genuine participation from the people, utilizing their expertise and experience. However, this seems unlikely given the current situation.
Mass Emigration Drains Expertise
A significant challenge is the large-scale emigration of skilled workers. The head of the Presidential Strategic Research Center admits the root cause of migration isn’t just economic hardship, but also a lack of faith in the future. University professor Morteza Ezzati warns that continued emigration will further deepen the economic crisis. Media reports highlight factors like poor internet infrastructure, burdensome tax regulations, unstable economic policies, and disrupted foreign relations that hinder economic activity and contribute to the exodus.
Experts Fear Production Collapse
Experts fear that this loss of human capital, both skilled and unskilled, will lead to the collapse of Iranian production. Companies struggle to find qualified workers, and the overall knowledge base shrinks. This, in turn, hinders innovation and economic growth.
Conclusion
While Khamenei’s call for a “Production Leap” sounds positive, experts remain skeptical. The Iranian economy faces deep-seated problems stemming from corruption, mismanagement, and failed past policies. The lack of a clear vision for the future combined with the ongoing brain drain paint a bleak picture for achieving a true “Production Leap” with genuine participation from the Iranian people.
