Insider news & Analysis in Iran

By INU Staff

INU - Rumours are circulating that Iran sceptics in the Donald Trump administration are quietly briefing Trump on a new argument which will make it impossible for him to recertify the Iranian Regime as compliant with the 2015 nuclear deal come October.

The argument rests on technical disclosures that the Obama administration made to Congress under the Corker-Cardin law, which gave Congress oversight over the Iran deal. The documents include a draft of a United Nations Security Council Resolution, which UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said that Iran has violated.

The language used in the certification states that the president must certify that Iran is complying with the nuclear deal and with "all related technical or additional agreements", so as a draft of the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 is included in the documents submitted to Congress, Trump can find them in violation based on that alone.

Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that he thinks that this argument is persuasive but that the most obvious reason to decertify Iran is that the "fatally flawed" nuclear deal is not in the national security interests of the US.

Dubowitz praised Haley for her speech on Tuesday, which set "the predicate for the president to de-certify and roll out a 'pressure and fix' campaign while signalling to Congress that now may not be the opportune time to reinstate sanctions and take America out of the deal."

Although this has been countered by a former official, who said that the Resolution is not included in that specific package of documents, it is hard to understand why it would be separated out if the Corker-Cardin law stipulates “all related technical or additional agreements".

Omri Ceren, the senior adviser at the Israel Project, said: "There may have been a debate over whether or not the resolution counts but now it's case closed. Trump is required to tell Congress whether or not Iran is implementing the Security Council Resolution as part of certification. It's impossible for him to do that given Iran's clear violations of restrictions on everything from arms transfers to travel bans to ballistic missile development. The president would be openly lying to Congress if he certified that Iran met the Corker-Cardin requirements."

Trump, who is required to recertify the deal every 90 days, doesn’t want to recertify Iran. That should be obvious given his constant sanctions against the Regime.

The only reason that he has done it twice so far this year is that his top aides persuaded him too. All he needs is an excuse.

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