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Iran’s Bluff of Exiting the Nuclear NPT

Iran-EU-US nuclear negotiations

The uprising of the Iranian people and the rebel youth in November not only set the stage for a new cycle of developments but also had a significant impact on the decisions of the international sides, especially in Europe.

The MEK’s Resistance Units in Iran have increasingly proved that they are the key element in the regional and international balance of power. The continuation of the uprising to a new quality in January and the burning of the images of Qassem Suleimani, the eliminated Quds force commander, also affected the regime’s international blackmail and deals and accelerated the upcoming events.

The trigger mechanism and Europe's departure from the policy of appeasement
The three main European countries activated the trigger mechanism in response to Tehran’s fifth step in reducing its commitments to the 2015 international nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.

Europe's distance from the regime's appeasement and its approach to American politics show itself in the sharp remarks of the British government and the Prime Minister. “If we’re going to get rid of it, let’s replace it and let’s replace it with the Trump deal,” Boris Johnson said.

A threat without backing

The regime that is drowning in the swamp of domestic and international self-made crises and the incomplete stalemate has no other option but a hollow bluff. The regime's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, announced on 20 January in a propaganda campaign for domestic consumption that if the European countries send the regime's case to the UN Security Council, the regime will withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, in response to the harsh words of the French president, who said that France will not be flexible on the nuclear ambitions of the Iranian regime and insisted “In the current context, France is determined that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon”, jumped the gun and threatened to exit the NPT.

We are not looking for nuclear weapons!

Rouhani is well aware that if the trigger mechanism is used and the regime's nuclear case is referred back to the UN Security Council, all past sanctions will be automatically restored. In a scathing retreat on the covert threat to reduce the consequences of the boast, he said: “You are responsible for the consequences. I reiterate here that we are not seeking nuclear weapons. We were not seeking nuclear weapons. And again, we are not looking for nuclear weapons. Even if the JCPOA also disappears, we are not looking for nuclear weapons. Regardless of whether we have good or bad relations with the IAEA, we do not seek nuclear weapons, our leadership has issued a fatwa.”

The regime is well aware that by losing the key element (Qassem Soleimani) to maintain its strategic depth, its blackmail language is now shortened, and every step backward will have extreme consequences for the regime.

The fact is that the mullahs' regime has no choice but to bluff and show empowerment in a downward spiral. Because the weakness and inability of the regime are such, that Khamenei had to come to the scene to psychologically rebuild the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and prevent them from collapsing.

A state-run newspaper described the purpose of Khamenei's presence in preventing the psychological downfall of the Revolutionary Guards following the death of Soleimani and wrote: “The effect that the leadership had on Friday prayers ceremony was, in fact, an attempt to psychologically rebuild the society. Psychological rehabilitation was the main goal of the leadership.” (Jahan Sanat, 18 January 2020)

What is remarkable is the regime's fear of its own hollow bluff. For this reason, Rouhani, in fear of further international isolation, ridiculously apologizes for a nuclear bomb six times. To untighten the rope of sanctions around the neck of the regime, he added: “Power comes from people. Power comes from trying for the economy. Power will come to us by interacting with the world.” (Rouhani, 22 January)

Playing with burnt cards!

The threat of leaving the NPT to blackmail against the activation of the trigger mechanism was not taken seriously by international actors but also had negative reactions within the regime.

State-run daily Asr Iran wrote: “Although leaving the NPT may convey the message to the great powers joined the JCPOA that Iran can also choose the fastest ways, but on the one hand it can bring closer Europe and the US and Israel to face Iran, and on the other hand provide valued justification for the US 'maximum pressure' on Iran.” (24 January)

This newspaper only wrote elsewhere:

“Although playing with the tactics of withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NTP) can be considered part of Iran's foreign policy to gain points and prevent Iran’s file from returning to the UN Security Council, but playing with this card at an inappropriate time and completely direct and clear can not only burn the card itself effect but turn it against itself and create more risks and costs that challenge Iran.”

Analysts say the regime’s blackmail and intimidation tactics have passed their time, and the international community will only tighten the blockade.

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