Back in January, Trump issued this deadline to the European signatories to the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and called it the deal’s “last chance”.
He said: “In the absence of such an agreement, the United States will not again waive sanctions in order to stay in the Iran nuclear deal. And if at any time I judge that such an agreement is not within reach, I will withdraw from the deal immediately. No one should doubt my word.”
Thus, there are two options before us:
1. Europe fails to agree on fixing the flaws and the US pulls out
2. Europe agrees to fix the flaws and Iran withdraws
From that we can see that no matter what happens in the next three weeks, the nuclear deal is dead. But which option is more likely?
Well, as far as the public knows, Europe does not seem likely to agree on fixing the deal by ending the sunset clauses that allow Iran to resume advanced nuclear development in just a few years, increasing the international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and curbing Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
It doesn’t seem likely that they will have a sudden change of heart, so option one is far more likely. But it’s not a bad thing if Trump pulls the US out of the Iran deal, in fact it has the potential to stop one of the world’s deadliest regimes in its tracks.
The deal has already proved less than adequate. For one thing, it doesn’t stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons; it only delays them for 10-15 years. For another, Iran has already been found to be cheating on the deal. International inspectors can’t prove it because Iran has prevented them from doing their job, but well placed Iranian Resistance operatives inside Iran provided evidence of this to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) over a year ago.
And that’s just what the deal actually covers. Iran’s violation of the spirit of the deal is even more horrifying, given their sponsorship of terrorist groups, meddling in the Middle East, and use of ballistic missiles against their enemies.
The majority of Iranians are also opposed to the deal because it does not provide the benefits promised to the ordinary people. Instead, the Iranian mullahs have taken the money gained and ploughed it into foreign wars, terrorism, and suppression of the Iranian people. This is perhaps best demonstrated in the nationwide anti-regime protests that have rocked Iran over the past few months.
Basically, the only way to save the deal is to have Iran acquiesce to the restrictions that Trump has put forth. But, they won’t. Thus, the deal is basically already dead.