There are two rumors at the ongoing nuclear talks between Iran and world powers in Vienna: Iranian officials are talking about the lifting of international sanctions but their counterparts in the negotiations, mainly the US government, say that there is a long way to go to get any result.
This short report will examine the maze of the negotiations and see that in which situation the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is now, and whether these negotiations will achieve any results soon or not.
Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani claimed that the sanctions have been lifted. On May 5, at the cabinet meeting he said: “As the head of state, I declare to the people that the sanctions have been broken and if we are all united, the sanctions will be lifted soon.”
“Both the Americans and the Europeans explicitly declare that we have no choice but to lift the sanctions and return to the JCPOA. Almost all the main sanctions have been lifted and negotiations are underway for some details.” (State-run website 55 online news, May 9, 2021)
But not long before him other officials of the regime said things that are not aligned with his claims about the negotiations.
Abbas Araghchi, political deputy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, in a separate statement before him said: “Overall, the process is on track, but we have both challenges and difficult details. We need to agree on them word for word and expression for expression.” (IRNA, April 30, 2021)
Nezam al-ddin Mousavi, an MP, about Rouhani’s claims said on April 19: “Again, Rouhani and his team are miscalculating the issue of nuclear negotiations and instead of pursuing it technically and scientifically, they see it as a political tool for domestic issues.”
Then on Friday, May 7 Abbas Araghchi said: “A positive atmosphere prevails in the fourth round of talks, and with the understanding that exists on the course of the talks, Iran will try without haste to end these talks as soon as possible.”
But it seems that the Iranian government has it very hurry to finish the negotiations as soon as possible.
The State-run daily Afatab-e-Yazd on May 9, 2021 wrote:
“From the observers’ point of view, two factors play a significant role in the speed and seriousness of the nuclear negotiations: The first is the election in Iran, which will be held on June 18. After that date, it is no longer clear which person or spectrum will take over executive affairs in Iran. The West believes that re-agreeing with Rouhani’s government and his nuclear team will be far easier than negotiating with the next government.
“The second factor goes back to Iran’s deadline to the IAEA and their agreement about three months ago. Tehran and the IAEA reached an agreement in early March last year under which Iran would suspend implementation of the Additional Protocol. Iran also agreed to keep surveillance cameras at some nuclear facilities out of the reach of IAEA inspectors for up to three months, warning that Tehran would delete the camera tapes if the sanctions were not lifted within a few months.
“The three-month deadline expires in early June, and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi recently expressed concern about the consequences of the failure of the Vienna talks, saying he would personally return to Tehran if the deadline expires before the resumption, to find a way out of this problem.
“Concerns that the talks will not be concluded within this limited two-week period have led members of the JCPOA to be determined to resolve their difference minds during this round of talks.” (Aftab-e-Yazd, May 9, 2021)
Iran experts believe there is one major reason for Tehran’s haste: its fears of the people’s anger and fury about extreme poverty in Iran.
The state-run news agency Student News Network (SNN) on May 9, 2021 said: “But in the meantime, the people and some political experts believe that tying the economy and people’s livelihoods to the nuclear negotiations is a big mistake.”
Moslem Moin, the head of the Basij cyberspace base, in a tweet attacked the regime’s President and said:
“The representative of the European Union said that the Iranian delegation is in a hurry in Vienna! Why should an inefficient government be in charge of negotiations and humiliate a nation in this way? When the Supreme Leader of the Revolution said with that firmness, we hurried in the JCPOA (2015), but now we have no hurry and insistence for the return of the United States to the JCPOA?”
Hurray or not, the truth is that despite all the claims about the progression of the negotiations, there is no move forward and there is a long way to a result which should be in the favor of this regime. And the main barrier to this is the regime itself in the search of a way out, to reach its blocked money resources and continue its nuclear weapon program, analysts say.
And this is what the counterparts are aware of, demanding the regime destroy all its developed centrifuges.
In an article on May 5, AXIOS about this issue wrote:
- “But Iran’s position is much different. One key disagreement is over what will happen to the new, more sophisticated centrifuges Iran has installed that allow Tehran to enrich uranium much more quickly, the diplomat says.
- Any new deal will have to determine whether Iran can still use those centrifuges and, if not, whether they would need to be taken out of the country or simply disconnected and stored in Iran.” (AXIOS, May 5, 2021)
Finally in its article Axios added: “A U.S. official responding to this story said, “If you’re hearing that we and our partners have resolved not to cut any corners when it comes to Iran’s nuclear commitments, that’s absolutely true.”
Finally, about the regime’s seriousness about the progress of the negotiations, US president Joe Biden said: “Yes. But how serious and what they’re prepared to do is a different story.”
The situation is more confusing than its seems the regime in the search of developing nuclear bombs to ensure its existence, while having no time to negotiate fearing a popular uprising, and a world that cannot accept Iran’s regime as the main state sponsor of terrorism and the main root of fundamentalism in the region becoming a nuclear power.