Starting from October 18, 2023, the Iranian regime will no longer be subject to restrictions on activities that support its missile program.
In reality, the regime is currently violating the U.N. embargo by exporting weapons to its proxies that exceed the restrictions imposed on them in terms of weapon types, ranges, and other factors.
The regime possesses a significant inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles that are currently equipped with conventional warheads but can be modified to carry nuclear warheads.
Although there have been no significant developments in the regime’s nuclear dossier over the past few months, the upcoming month presents new challenges.
It is important to note that the regime’s controversial missile program is a critical issue, and the US and European governments have expressed concern about it.
The question that arises is whether Western powers will take decisive action against this program, especially given its impact on the lives of ordinary people in Ukraine, who are being attacked every day by drones the Iranian regime has delivered to Russia.
Once the embargo is lifted, Iran’s regime will no longer be restricted in its research, development, and production of ballistic missiles intended for carrying nuclear weapons.
The United Nations is set to lift the ban on Iran’s import and export of technology related to missiles, as well as missiles and drones with a range of 300 kilometers or greater.
The removal of the embargo on Iran’s missiles has the potential to worsen the current threats faced by both Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf region and the Middle East, as well as global security.
Furthermore, lifting the embargo will provide some economic relief to the regime. This increased flow of money will only strengthen the regime’s hold over the people and enable it to better suppress dissent.
This action could also escalate conflicts in the already volatile Middle East and potentially trigger and hasten an arms race in the region, along with the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology.
Additionally, the lifting of the embargo would allow the regime to acquire more advanced missile technology from other countries, particularly Russia and North Korea. This could potentially enhance the regime’s military capabilities and regional influence. Moreover, the regime would be able to expedite the research and development of delivery systems for nuclear warheads.
Given the regime’s long-standing history of interference in regional conflicts and support of paramilitary forces such as its militias in Iraq, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, lifting the embargo on missiles could potentially provide the regime with additional resources to bolster these groups and further destabilize the region.
Hence, it is crucial for world powers to maintain the pressure on the regime. The regime must be constantly aware of the potential consequences of increased pressure.
Recently a group of former regime diplomats expressed concerns regarding the potential activation of the trigger mechanism and the reinstatement of sanctions from the previous six Security Council resolutions against this regime.
According to recent reports, Fereydun Majlesi, a foreign policy analyst within the regime, has expressed concern about the potential activation of the trigger mechanism and has issued a clear warning to the regime to take steps to prevent such an outcome.
Majlesi cautioned against the potential consequences of the regime’s decision to sanction certain British and EU officials and even mocked the action.
He warned that such “ill-considered” actions could trigger the activation of the trigger mechanism, which is becoming an increasingly imminent danger. He also emphasized that the snapback mechanism, which reversed all the international sanctions from the six UN resolutions of the Ahmadinejad era, remains a thorn in Iran’s side.
He characterized the current trajectory of the regime as leading towards “a period of total isolation and falling into the trap of the trigger mechanism.”
And added that “international laws and resolutions are not scraped paper” and that the “return of the trigger mechanism is likely.”
Other members of the regime are also expressing concerns about the potential reactivation of the snapback mechanism. Former diplomat Kurosh Ahamadi has warned that recent increases in uranium enrichment, the export of weapons and drones to Russia, and ongoing conflicts with the International Atomic Energy Agency may lead the European troika to activate the mechanism.
The period leading up to October is critical for Western nations to prevent the regime from acquiring nuclear weapons, which would undoubtedly pose a threat to global peace and security. It is incumbent upon them to maintain pressure on the regime and not loosen the noose around its neck.