Iran’s nuclear case is becoming one of the main foreign policy challenges of Ebrahim Raisi’s government despite Raisi’s claim before taking office that Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers (JCPOA) was overstated by the then government for its election contest.
But regardless of the continuity quality of the JCPOA agreement, this is an agreement that has strategic importance for the regime, therefore there is no way to deviate from this path.
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdullahian three months ago said that the regime needs three months to select the JCPOA reviving team. These speeches show that Iran wants to increase its nuclear ambitions in these 90 days to have the upper hand in the negotiations with the US.
But such a policy in postponing the negotiations have consequences for the regime as many of its media said, that “its prolongation gives the ‘Hebrew-Arab Axis’ the opportunity to use different strategies, such as influencing U.S. politicians through Zionist institutions inside the U.S., to gradually dissuade the U.S. government and Biden from negotiating the JCPOA revival, and by accusing Iran of rescinding its JCPOA commitments, paving the way for Iran’s return to the Security Council and putting Iran under Section 7.” (Eghtesad News, September 8, 2021)
The country’s economic situation because of the sanctions and the consequence of the coronavirus is forcing the regime to think and search for various ways to free the regime’s blocked assets in different country’s else it will face protests worse than the of November 2019.
Therefore, Raisi’s government has only one choice to move back to the negotiating table and revive the JCPOA, even with the conditions that will be a pain for the regime such as its missile and regional interference cases.
However, it seems that Raisi’s government is suffering from very bad dizziness. Raisi had spoken clearly of continuing talks before he became president, and then being elected has repeatedly repeated this issue, and it seems that no specific policy is still on the agenda of the regime’s 13th administration in the face of nuclear negotiations and the JCPOA. The reason is clear. The Western powers demand a JCPOA+, i.e., an updated version of the 2015 nuclear deal with added constraints on Iran, which is equivalent to accelerating the regime’s demise.
“It seems that no specific policy is still on the agenda of the 13th administration in the face of nuclear negotiations and the JCPOA, or, according to Abolfazl Zohrevand, ‘the main team has not been selected yet!’ Zohrevand insists: We have been passive, and this passivity is due to the change of government, and that those who take over now are not fluent in the case.” (Aftab-e-Yazd, September 7, 2021)
Showing their fear, many of the state media warned that, “The continuation of these trends could threaten the Islamic Republic. Neglecting negative trends within the country can threaten the system and challenge the achievements of the strategy of the past four decades due to internal weaknesses. In the next decade, it is necessary to take a strategy of reconciliation and interaction with the world.” (Donya-e-Eghtesad, September 7, 2021)
“The principlists, who before the presidential elections and the formation of the 11th parliament, insulting a way of establishing relations with the world and tearing up the JCPOA in the open court of parliament, have gradually found that without the revival of the JCPOA and relations with the world, the country’s economic problems cannot be solved.” (Setareh-e-Sobh, September 7, 2021)
Therefore, if international tensions are not resolved, the JCPOA does not achieve its goal, no dollar enters the country, the export boom will not take place, the regime’s problems and crises will increase and people will rise and protest again, and the regime has no other solution to solve the livelihood problems of the people other than this path.