The US and its allies across the world are currently embarking on a strategy to push Iran back from a number of points in the Middle East and contain the mullahs’ regime.
The strategy is economic (increased sanctions), military (Israeli action against Iranian militias in Syria and the Arab Coalition to defeat the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen) and political (in Iraq and Lebanon).
Iran has little conventional military power, with most of its defence budget being spent on its missile programmes, suppressive security forces (Revolutionary Guard Corps, Quds Force), and proxy militias (the Houthis, Hezbollah). This means the mullahs are vulnerable to traditional warfare, as proved by Israel and the Arab Coalition in the past few months.
Iran will also be significantly affected by sanctions, as without the money pouring in from abroad, the Regime will be unable to pay its proxy militias. Although it will certainly use the proxies against its enemies while it can. Indeed, Iran’s Hezbollah proxy is the only reason that the mullahs have any power in Lebanon, which US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said it controlled by the Iran proxy.
Therefore, targeting Iran politically will help to remove them from the countries that they are already intrinsically connected to. For the Iranian mullahs, maintaining control in these countries is a necessity, not a luxury. They must keep hold of these countries or else be crushed by other forces in the Middle East.
Of course, Iran is likely to hit back with a counter-strategy to slow Western efforts. While this might seem worrying, it’s important to remember that Iran is not as strong as it makes itself out to be and is weakest when confronted with conventional warfare and a hard border (Iraq, Kurdish Syria, Yemen and Gaza).
This strategy can work, so long as the international community works together to get tough on Iran and end the appeasement of the mullahs.
If the world can do that, then the Regime will have no possible winning strategy and will be crushed. This means that the only option for the rest of the world is to increase the pressure on the Regime in all three areas mentioned.
When the Regime is crushed, this will allow the Iranian people’s popular resistance to take over and bring about a free and democratic Iran that works for everyone.
One thing is certain, Iran’s control over the Middle East is coming to an end and the West can either help liberate the other countries or wait and watch. The choice should be obvious.