Iran’s fake presidential election, which is scheduled for the late spring of 2021, will be one of the difficult crossings and passes for the government as a whole.
This difficulty combined with the weight of its political and strategic burden is not comparable to previous examples in previous decades.
Because four years after the last presidential election in the spring of 2018, a balance of power has been struck between the Iranian people and the governments of the world against the Iranian government, which expresses the characteristics of the current situation very differently from the past.
These include the two uprisings of January 2018 and November 2019, which fundamentally upset the balance of power and created two different political, social, and international worlds than in the past.
Turmoil and challenges around the Velayat-e-Faqih
In addition to the parameters mentioned outside Iran’s government, which are the main factors influencing the performance of the 2021 election, in the last four years, the government has suffered from internal divisions and is in turmoil incomparable to four years ago.
The turmoil and challenges that led to the war of the factions at the head of the system and the absence of the principle of Velayat-e-Faqih and the person of Velayat-e-Faqih itself.
The meaning and difference of the two sanctions
The outcome of such domestic and international coordinates has led to two sanctions against the Islamic Republic:
Domestic sanctions and people’s rejection and the international sanctions. It is worth noting that the regime in the internal sanctions, on the one hand, has been rejected by the overwhelming majority of the people, and on the other hand, is facing unprecedented war and violence in internal divisions.
There are two significant differences between the domestic and international sanctions. The US-led international sanctions against the regime are aimed at controlling the regime’s nuclear capability.
Naturally, the starting point of this embargo is in the international political and security interests to thwart the expansionist aspirations and exports of terrorism of the regime, which seeks to support and guarantee nuclear weapons or nuclear capability.
Thus, the international boycott of the regime, although it helps Iran’s national interests to control and reject this regime, has not aimed at overthrowing and rejecting the regime.
It is noteworthy that the international sanctions, according to Hassan Rouhani, have conveyed the message and effects of the January 2018 uprising to the United States. An uprising that also challenged Europe’s appeasement of the regime.
Regime sanctions by the Iranian people are strategically different from international sanctions. In present-day Iran, the two fronts of the people and the regime are lined up against each other.
The sanctions that the regime’s officials or the insiders of the regime already feel and express their fear of the 2021 elections are the complete rejection of the regime as a prospect of its overthrow.
The concept of security in the 2021 presidential election
In the Islamic Republic, the issue of security from the very beginning of its formation has had no purpose other than maintaining its existence at any cost.
In this regime, the word ‘security’, unlike everywhere in the world, has no meaning for the health of life and the freedom of the people, nor a national meaning to guarantee the general progress of the country and the protection of human rights.
Therefore, when we encounter security threats in the media and propaganda of the regime on the eve of the 2021 elections, there is no doubt that the danger of an uprising must be considered as an accurate example and its correct translation.
For this reason, the state media gives a direct address to such a fact in relation to the 1400 show. Hence, the meaning of ‘reducing participation’ from the point of view of the state media is nothing but rejection and sanctions and the assignment of the entire system as one its media wrote:
“Reducing participation has serious consequences for the political system as a whole. As Mohammad Sadr (member of the Expediency Council) has warned of its security consequences. Because a serious decline in participation means that society no longer gives credit to executives.” (State-run daily Arman, Note by Ahmad Zeidabadi, February 15, 2021)
As we approach this election show, the role of the fake and so-called reformers in mediating peace between the people and the clerical rule becomes even more apparent. In the absence of the rule of Velayat-e-Faqih, there are no grounds for expression and their existence is dependent to the entire regime.
Read their inevitable confession to this role by the same state-run daily: They (dominant wing, which is the Supreme leader’s faction) call on the reformist faction, to run in the elections with a parasitic force (Uninvited Guest); But at the same time, this increase in participation should not lead to the victory of the reformist option.” (State-run daily Arman, Note by Ahmad Zeidabadi, February 15, 2021)
International consequences of the 2021 election
As noted above, the regime’s 2021 election show is directly related to the international coordinates of sanctions. What is the cause?
It should be noted that the basis of the sanctions of the regime was the effects of the uprising of January 2018 , which both rejected both factions of the regime and with this denial, the vote and will of the Iranian people resonated worldwide.
Therefore, the international consequences of the sanctions and the failure of this election show will be very severe for the system. This fact has become so obvious and proven that the state-run Arman daily, in the same memo, warns government officials in advance:
“The consequences of reducing participation are practically against the whole. Therefore, if the turnout in the 2021 elections falls below the level of February 21, 2020, significant pulses will definitely be sent, and in the first way, the work will be more difficult for us at the international level.”
According to the studied samples, from any perspective that looks at the election of the 2021 Islamic Republic, there is nothing but the consequences of internal rejection and sanctions and its international impact and consequences.