In the midst of escalating chatter and speculation surrounding the forthcoming elections in Iran, attention is sharply focused on the pivotal roles of the 12th Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, tasked with crucial decisions regarding leadership.
Central to the discourse is the question: what are Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s primary objectives for the 2024 elections? How do they diverge from previous electoral processes? Amidst indications of meticulous orchestration, does Khamenei aim to reclaim legitimacy lost in the wake of the 2022 uprising?
While various conjectures abound, many analysts suggest Khamenei’s paramount aim is singular: the consolidation and purification of the Assembly of Experts.
Khamenei’s imperative is to secure a cohort within the Assembly who will faithfully execute his directives in selecting his successor upon his death. Hence, the disqualification of former president Hassan Rouhani and other perceived threats to Khamenei’s authority.
The composition of the Parliament appears less concerning for Khamenei, having already taken steps to align it with his objectives. His focus now is on neutralizing rivals and cultivating a like-minded Assembly of Experts, essential for ensuring his desired successor ascends to the position of religious authority.
As to the identity of this successor, speculation abounds. Two contenders emerge: Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the incumbent president, Ebrahim Raisi. Security concerns prompt secrecy, with the risk of assassination looming large, as noted by Assembly member Mohammad Ali Jazayeri.
While Raisi’s involvement signals Khamenei’s confidence in him, uncertainties persist regarding the Assembly’s role in succession. The regime’s Constitution mandates their selection of the next leader, yet Khamenei remains publicly reticent on the matter, underscoring the gravity of the issue.
However, nominating either candidate poses challenges. Mojtaba Khamenei faced significant opposition from influential clergy in the past, signaling potential social repercussions. Raisi, meanwhile, carries the burden of his involvement in the 1988 massacre and lacks the requisite scholarly credentials, complicating his suitability for leadership.
Ultimately, Khamenei’s focus on these elections is to engineer a favorable composition within the Assembly of Experts, securing the future of his regime after his death. And that is the reason why he is constantly asking the people to participate in the elections.
But his pleas for voter turnout ring hollow against the backdrop of widespread apathy and disdain for the electoral process. Even government officials acknowledge the glaring lack of enthusiasm. A parliament member from Alborz province starkly revealed that in the last election cycle, voter turnout barely scraped 2-3% in some areas. Now, the prospect of participation seems even bleaker, with citizens overwhelmingly opting out of the charade.
Even those within the regime have lost faith in its leadership. A former official of the regime’s IRGC, Rahim Qomeishi, expressed disillusionment in his Telegram Channel, echoing the sentiments of a retired army commander:
“Imagine selecting 85 out of 100 elderly and incapacitated individuals to make critical decisions for our country, and then telling us it’s our choice! We elect parliamentarians from those who have pledged allegiance to this failing system, only to witness our empty pockets grow even emptier. Are we expected to reinforce the illusion of satisfaction by participating in elections? We’re not naive.”
