In a recent debate aired on Iranian state media, sociologists Dr. Ahmad Bokharai and Dr. Mohsen Redadi provided a stark assessment of the rapidly declining social capital of the Iranian regime. Their candid remarks shed light on the chaotic state of affairs and the deep-rooted problems plaguing the Islamic Republic.
A Society in Decline
According to Dr. Bokharai, a member of the academic faculty and director of the Sociology Department at an Iranian university, “Iranian society is semi-authoritarian, and in such a society, we cannot talk about social capital.” He cited several indicators, including low voter turnout, eroding trust in institutions, and declining life satisfaction, as evidence of Iran’s dwindling social capital.
Bokharai identified 25 factors contributing to this decline, ranging from the influence of global culture and the erosion of values to self-centeredness, a weak educational system, and a decline in mental health.
Other factors included a loss of hope for the future, dissatisfaction among minorities, an increase in lying and corruption, demographic shifts due to migration, the spread of materialism, the politicization of religion, generational divides, unemployment, and a lack of economic security.
A Regime Obsessed with Power and Wealth
Bokharai painted a damning picture of a regime more concerned with accumulating wealth and power than addressing the needs of its people. “The officials don’t know what is right or wrong at all,” he lamented. “They are just the union of wealth and power, the hand of wealth comes out of the sleeve of power. Behind the scene is the story of wealth.”
He criticized the regime’s fixation on missile projects and domestic violence, while failing to address pressing social issues like the mandatory hijab laws. “They have made the hijab a security issue,” he said, accusing the regime of lying about the true nature of the problem.
A Failing Political System
Bokharai described Iran’s political system as “ideological and security-oriented,” more focused on preserving its power and wealth than addressing social capital. He argued that many of Iran’s problems, including the mandatory hijab, are rooted in this flawed system.
Dismissing the possibility of reform, he stated, “You want to tell the security institution not to make the society’s issue a security issue? Its whole nature is to make everything a security issue.” He cited the case of Nika Shakarami, a young woman allegedly killed by security forces during protests, as an example of the regime’s brutality and lack of accountability.
A Legacy of Repression and Executions
Bokharai also highlighted the regime’s staggering execution rate, which he claimed was ten times higher than that of the apartheid system in South Africa between the 1950s and the 1990s.
He noted that while the apartheid regime executed around 2,500 people over 46 years, the Iranian regime executed 4,000 people in the summer of 1988 alone, with a total of 25,000 executions in recent years.
He defended the actions of protesters as a “reaction to an action,” arguing that if the regime attacks people with shotguns, they have a right to defend themselves.
The End of the Velayat-e Faghih
Finally, Bokharai declared that “the era of the Velayat-e Faghih (supreme leader) has come to an end,” questioning the regime’s insistence on enforcing the mandatory hijab laws.
This debate provides a rare glimpse into the dire conditions facing the Iranian regime, which has lost its social capital and is facing mounting internal challenges. As Bokharai and Redadi’s remarks suggest, a regime that has lost the trust and support of its people is doomed to eventual demise and fall.
