The former Iranian ambassador to Germany, Japan, and Brazil has acknowledged that U.S. sanctions have not only severely constrained the Iranian regime’s economic interactions with Europe but have also nearly halted its trade relations with East Asia.
Ali Majedi, speaking to the ILNA news agency on Saturday, March 29, highlighted the rupture in cooperation between major Asian economies and the regime. He stated, “Currently, East Asia is not working with us at all, except for China and perhaps a few countries to which we have very limited exports.”
According to Majedi, developed nations such as Japan, South Korea, and, more recently, India—the world’s fifth-largest economy—have reduced their trade engagements with the regime to a minimum. In discussions with members of the regime’s Chamber of Commerce, he specifically noted that both economic and political interactions with Japan have been “suspended.”
He further emphasized the drastic decline in the regime’s oil exports, stating that, in the past, around three-quarters of the regime’s oil shipments were destined for East Asia. “But now that has also disappeared,” he lamented.
Sanctions and the Shadow Fleet
Meanwhile, the regime’s already limited oil exports to China—often conducted through a shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions—have faced even greater restrictions due to the reinstatement of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that more than ten tankers carrying 17 million barrels of the regime’s crude oil were stranded off the coast of Malaysia, with some having been anchored for over a month, unable to find buyers.
The Economic Toll of Sanctions
Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei previously portraying U.S. sanctions as an “opportunity,” their economic toll has been devastating. On March 25, the former head of the regime’s Central Bank, Mohammad Hossein Adeli, told Khabar Online that these sanctions have cost the regime’s foreign trade at least $50 billion.
In 2023, the regime’s total foreign trade amounted to approximately $150 billion. Adeli estimated that “a 30 percent increase in costs resulting from sanctions” had imposed an additional $50 billion burden on the country. He elaborated, “If we calculate this figure with the free-market exchange rate of 93,000 tomans per dollar, the cost of sanctions is equivalent to the regime’s annual budget. This means that every Iranian loses about 53 million tomans on average annually, and a family of four loses about 18 million tomans per month.”
A Stalled Nuclear Deal and Diplomatic Deadlock
The extensive U.S. sanctions were reinstated after the Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018. These measures not only targeted the regime’s energy sector but also impacted banking, shipping, and even basic goods trade.
Despite promises from the Biden administration to return to the JCPOA, negotiations to revive the deal—which resumed in Vienna in 2021—have reached a standstill despite multiple rounds of talks. Direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington remain suspended, with Khamenei repeatedly dismissing talks with the U.S. as “useless” or “harmful.”
However, in a striking reversal, regime officials have recently signaled willingness for indirect negotiations with the United States. This shift follows repeated statements by Donald Trump and a letter he reportedly sent to Khamenei outlining “opportunities and threats.” This latest development underscores the regime’s increasingly desperate position as it faces mounting economic and political pressures.
