For the first time in its 46-year history, the Iranian regime faces a fundamental question: Will the hardline loyalists within its security apparatus continue to defend the regime unconditionally if protests erupt again?
According to analysts, this concern has triggered panic among the regime’s ruling elite. They are acutely aware that the collapse of Syria’s regime under Bashar al-Assad was largely due to the demoralization and eventual defection of its repressive forces. The possibility of a similar scenario unfolding in Iran is a nightmare for the ruling clerics.
The Erosion of Support Over Four Decades
Since its establishment in 1979, the Iranian regime has depended on various social groups to maintain power. Initially, the clerical establishment enjoyed broad support across different strata of society. However, over the past four decades, it has progressively lost the backing of nearly all the groups it once claimed to represent.
First Decade: Alienating Secular and Modern Iranians
During the first decade after the revolution, the regime’s strict Islamic policies alienated Iran’s modern and secular society. The eight-year Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) further consolidated the power of the regime’s founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, allowing him to systematically eliminate secular forces that had played a role in overthrowing the Pahlavi regime.
Second Decade: Middle-Class Disillusionment
In the 1990s, a combination of war fatigue and demographic shifts led to the emergence of secular and liberal trends among Iran’s growing middle class. However, the regime responded with increased repression, culminating in the 2009 presidential election crisis. The fraudulent election and subsequent brutal crackdown on protests marked the definitive loss of middle-class support for the regime.
Third Decade: Economic Decline and Loss of Working-Class Support
By the late 2010s, economic mismanagement, corruption, and international sanctions further weakened the regime’s standing. The working class, once the backbone of the Islamic Republic and frequently referred to by Khomeini as the “oppressed class,” began to turn against the regime. This shift became evident during the 2017 and 2019 protests, which were spearheaded by working-class demonstrators in cities previously considered regime strongholds, such as Mashhad and Qom.
The brutal suppression of the November 2019 protests, during which security forces killed approximately 1,500 protesters within days, permanently severed the regime’s connection with the lower classes.
Present: The Regime’s Shrinking Hard-Core Support Base
Since 2019, as the regime approaches the half-century mark, its remaining support is largely confined to a narrow, radical ideological base. This faction—referred to as the “hard core”—is composed of individuals committed to the regime’s strict Islamic policies, both domestically and internationally. Their ideological pillars include:
- Enforcement of strict Islamic social policies (e.g., morality patrols, mandatory hijab laws).
- Support for the so-called “Axis of Resistance” and proxy militias.
- Anti-Israel and anti-American policies.
- Efforts to develop nuclear capabilities.
To maintain this base, the regime has cultivated a privileged class of insiders who receive financial benefits and the freedom to exploit state resources. In return, they are expected to demonstrate unwavering loyalty, including mobilizing against anti-government protests.
Cracks in the Hard Core
Despite these efforts, fractures have begun to appear within this hardline faction. Recent events suggest that even the most loyal supporters of the regime are growing disillusioned.
Betrayals and Internal Divisions
Khamenei’s decision to appoint Masoud Pezeshkian, a so-called reformist, as president sparked outrage among the hardliners, who viewed the move as a betrayal. This anger intensified when Pezeshkian attempted to appoint former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as Deputy for Strategic Affairs, signaling a potential shift toward renewed negotiations with the West. Hardline opposition ultimately forced Zarif’s dismissal.
Further discord arose when Khamenei’s Supreme National Security Council postponed the enforcement of strict morality laws, including the mandatory hijab regulations. This move led to open criticism from regime loyalists, who accused the leadership of abandoning one of the regime’s core ideological principles.
External Failures and Growing Frustration
The regime’s setbacks in the Middle East have also deepened hardliner discontent. The weakening of Hezbollah, Hamas, and, most notably, the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria have shaken their faith in Khamenei’s leadership. Many hardliners who fought in Syria under the belief that defending Assad was synonymous with protecting the Islamic Republic’s ideology now feel betrayed by the regime’s failure to prevent his downfall.
The Regime’s Existential Dilemma
The unraveling of the regime’s ideological support base poses an existential threat. Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards understand that these extremists constitute the core force responsible for suppressing dissent. Their defection would significantly weaken the regime’s ability to maintain control in the face of mass uprisings.
Faced with this crisis, the regime has limited options. To regain the hardliners’ support, Khamenei may double down on extremist policies at home and abroad. However, such a move risks provoking broader unrest among the general population, increasing the likelihood of widespread anti-government protests.
Conversely, if the regime attempts to moderate its stance to prevent domestic upheaval, it risks further alienating its core supporters, who may view any concessions as ideological betrayal.
Conclusion: A Paradox with No Easy Exit
Khamenei and the IRGC are now caught in a dangerous paradox. If they continue to escalate their hardline policies, they may face a nationwide uprising. If they soften their stance, they risk losing the last bastion of their support. This existential dilemma marks a critical juncture for the Iranian regime, one that could ultimately determine its fate.
