Experts warn that soaring fertilizer prices, declining grain production, and disruptions to southern ports could push Iran’s agricultural sector toward collapse
The Iranian regime continues to insist that the country’s agricultural sector remains stable despite growing economic turmoil, maritime disruptions, and mounting shortages. Officials claim that most agricultural needs are produced domestically and that farmers still have adequate access to chemical fertilizers even after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of southern shipping routes.
However, reports from Iranian media outlets and assessments by independent experts paint a far more alarming picture.
Agricultural production in Iran has been declining steadily in recent years, and economists warn that soaring fertilizer prices, logistical disruptions, and reduced imports could severely worsen food insecurity and deepen the country’s economic crisis.
Some Iranian media outlets have already raised the question openly: Is Iran’s agricultural sector heading toward paralysis?
Declining Agricultural Production Across Iran
Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh recently claimed that 85 percent of Iran’s agricultural needs are produced domestically.
But critics inside Iran accuse the government of manipulating statistics to conceal the scale of the sector’s deterioration.
According to Iran’s ILNA news agency, an agricultural expert alleged that local agricultural officials have been publishing misleading production data. The report cited claims that authorities in Gilan Province exaggerated the scale of secondary rice cultivation by tens of thousands of hectares. Iran’s agricultural decline had already begun long before the recent regional conflict.
In agriculture, all indicators show that the situation worsens every year. Over the past decade, around 500,000 people have left the agricultural sector. Iran’s grain production has fallen sharply in recent years.
Based on statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Iran’s wheat production dropped from approximately 17 million tons in 2024 to 12.5 million tons last year, with projections suggesting another decline to around 12 million tons this year.
Rice production has also declined, falling from 4.2 million tons in 2024 to roughly 3.9 million tons in 2025.
Overall grain production, according to these estimates, dropped from 26 million tons in 2024 to approximately 20 million tons last year.
Iran Increasingly Dependent on Food Imports
Iran’s agricultural sector has long struggled with structural problems, especially water shortages, drought, and environmental mismanagement. Farmers in provinces such as Isfahan have repeatedly staged protests over water scarcity and collapsing agricultural conditions.
As domestic production falls, Iran has become increasingly dependent on imports to meet food demand. Iran currently imports around 17 million tons of grain annually, including wheat, barley, corn, and rice.
The regime’s declining foreign currency revenues could make those imports increasingly difficult to sustain.
In recent years, much of Iran’s hard currency income came from oil, petrochemicals, natural gas, and steel exports. Those revenues allowed the government to subsidize essential imports, including food products and agricultural inputs.
But with regional conflict, sanctions pressure, and disruptions to energy infrastructure, analysts believe the regime may no longer possess the same financial capacity to maintain large-scale imports.
Fertilizer Prices Surge Dramatically
While regime officials insist there is no fertilizer shortage, farmers and industry observers report unprecedented price increases.
On May 8, 2026, Agriculture Minister Gholamreza Nouri claimed that chemical fertilizer distribution had increased by roughly eight percent compared to previous years.
Yet only days earlier, Iran’s Agricultural Support Services Company announced new fertilizer prices for 2026, triggering widespread concern.
Iranian media described the increases as “several hundred percent” and, in some cases, equivalent to a tenfold rise in prices.
The website Rouydad24 reported that some fertilizers previously sold for less than 800,000 tomans per bag are now being offered at prices exceeding seven million tomans.
Simple superphosphate reportedly experienced the steepest increase, with prices rising more than 8.5 times. Potassium chloride prices also surged by nearly fivefold.
Maritime Disruptions and War Damage Fuel the Crisis
Analysts point to multiple factors behind the dramatic rise in fertilizer prices.
According to Rouydad24, the removal of fertilizer subsidies combined with U.S.-imposed maritime pressure on Iran’s southern ports has significantly disrupted imports.
Iran previously imported much of its fertilizer from China. Following maritime disruptions, Chinese fertilizer shipments now require longer and riskier transportation routes, sharply increasing shipping and insurance costs.
damage sustained by Iran’s petrochemical infrastructure during recent conflict. Petrochemical facilities in Assaluyeh and Mahshahr — responsible for roughly 70 percent of Iran’s petrochemical production — were heavily affected, creating major disruptions in domestic fertilizer production.
Southern Port Disruptions Threaten Food Supply Chains
The disruption of Iran’s southern ports has created additional challenges for agricultural imports.
Although regime officials claim they have redirected imports toward northern ports and land borders, experts argue that many critical products cannot easily be rerouted.
While grain imports from northern neighbors may still be possible, products such as soybeans and imported meat remain heavily dependent on access through the Persian Gulf. Iran cannot fully replace Persian Gulf shipping routes with alternative corridors.
Experts Warn of Broader Economic Fallout
Agricultural experts caution that fertilizer shortages and rising input costs threaten not only crop production but also livestock and fisheries. Disruptions in fertilizer supply could destabilize the country’s broader food production chain.
With fertilizer shortages, livestock production and fisheries are also endangered, This chain reaction could create problems across many sectors of the country.
As inflation, import dependency, environmental collapse, and logistical disruptions intensify simultaneously, Iran’s agricultural sector appears increasingly vulnerable to a deeper systemic crisis — one that could ultimately threaten national food security itself.
