The value of the Iranian dollar has skyrocketed to over 64,000 tomans, and gold coins now cost more than 46 million tomans. These record highs are becoming commonplace, yet the regime not only refuses to abandon its warmongering but also resorts to blatant lies about the country’s economic health to quell public outrage.
In a recent meeting, President Raisi presented ludicrous statistics, claiming a six percent economic growth and a balanced budget, signifying an end to the budget deficit and a significant reduction in inflation. However, he conveniently skipped over the crippling crisis in worker income, a major challenge facing the nation. He merely offered empty promises of supporting low-income groups.
Meanwhile, Rouzbeh Karduni, former head of the Social Security Research Center, paints a grim picture in an interview with ILNA. He reveals a staggering rise in poverty, stating that “the population below the absolute poverty line doubled in less than four years, rising from 15% to 30% between 2019 and 2021.” Notably, he highlights a particularly alarming trend: “the population of working people below the absolute poverty line has increased five times.” This implies poverty is no longer confined to the unemployed; even employed individuals are struggling to make ends meet.
Surprisingly, even Supreme Leader Khamenei acknowledged the “bitter economic realities” in a recent speech, mentioning high prices, market instability, currency devaluation, and widening class gaps. However, he followed suit by fabricating a rosy picture, claiming extensive infrastructure projects, a surge in new companies, and the rise of a capable private sector.
Ignoring warnings from the regime’s own economists about international isolation and exclusion from global markets, a new message emerges: “facing reality without illusions” is the first step towards solving the crisis. Experts point out that economic growth has stagnated entirely.
State-run media like Jahan-e Sanat echoes this sentiment, highlighting a 40% decline in capital accumulation over the past decade and a concerning brain drain. They emphasize that oil remains the only factor capable of short-term growth. However, without increased production capacity, this growth won’t be sustainable. Additionally, Khabar Online emphasizes the need for institutional and infrastructural reforms to ensure long-term economic health.
Furthermore, official statistics expose the hollowness of the claimed 6% growth. Agricultural production has consistently declined for eight seasons straight, with a 12% drop in Fall 2023 compared to 2020, despite rising product prices. Non-oil industry also exhibits negative growth. The truth is, the “growth” primarily stems from oil and gas production. Even GDP growth excluding oil is a meager 1.5%, with negative figures in crucial sectors like agriculture and industry.
Finally, let’s address the inflation crisis. Experts estimate a fivefold increase in prices over the past five years. This perpetual inflation, hovering near or exceeding 40% annually, is unprecedented and severely impacting everyday lives.
In conclusion, even if a 5% GDP increase exists, it’s primarily driven by oil exports. The revenue, however, doesn’t benefit the people. It’s either funneled towards funding terrorism and proxy militias or leaves the country through capital flight. The Iranian people are left to bear the brunt of a crumbling economy built on lies and unsustainable practices.
