New government data reveals a negative trade balance of $16.8 billion in Iran’s non-oil sector for 2023.
According to customs figures, non-oil exports reached $49.4 billion last year, a 7% decline compared to 2022. Conversely, imports rose by 7% to $64.3 billion. Additionally, Iran imported $1.9 billion worth of standard gold.
Discrepancies in Oil Trade Figures
In an attempt to showcase a positive overall trade balance, Iran’s customs authority has, for the first time, included statistics on oil, electricity, and service exports. However, it does not include the imports of these goods in its official calculations.
Customs data indicates that Iran’s oil exports reached $35.9 billion in 2023, reflecting an 8.6% increase from 2022. However, international sources, including Commodity Information Company Kpler, estimate that Iran exported 1.3 million barrels of crude oil per day last year, representing a 48% increase compared to 2022.
This discrepancy arises despite a mere 17% decline in global oil prices. It is not clear why, according to the mentioned figures, the export value of Iran’s crude oil has grown by only 8.6%.
Furthermore, Iran exported 220,000 barrels of mazut daily in 2023. Based on these figures, the total value of Iran’s oil exports should be closer to $44 billion, significantly higher than the $35.9 billion reported by customs. Additionally, limited diesel and gasoline imports, which are not included in the customs calculations, further complicate the picture.
Unreported Service Exports and Capital Flight
Customs data highlights $1.3 billion in “technical and engineering services” exports for 2023. However, the report fails to mention the total value of service exports, including transit and import services.
Central bank statistics suggest that Iran’s service imports have historically been around $15 billion, with service exports amounting to roughly half that figure. The rationale behind including only specific exports while excluding corresponding imports from the trade balance calculations remains unclear.
Iran has also grappled with significant capital flight in recent years. While official figures for 2023 are unavailable, Central Bank data reveals that capital flight reached $9.3 billion in 2022.
Rial Depreciation
The deterioration of Iran’s non-oil trade balance has accelerated the depreciation of the Iranian rial in recent months. As of today, April 6, 2024, the exchange rate stands at 64,650 tomans per US dollar on the open market. This translates to an 18% devaluation compared to March 2023 and a 31% decline since April 2023.
