Officials’ contradictory statements suggest a looming fuel price surge that could trigger new protests reminiscent of November 2019.
A new wave of public concern is rising in Iran as regime officials signal a drastic increase in gasoline prices—potentially up to five times the current rate. The move, which many fear could ignite unrest similar to the deadly protests of November 2019, is being justified by the government as a response to “imbalances” and “sanctions,” even as inflation surpasses 50 percent and household budgets collapse under mounting pressure.
The debate was reignited after Mohammad Mehdi Tabatabaei, Deputy Director of Communications and Information at the Presidential Office, stated in an interview that “gasoline must become more expensive.” Soon after, several members of parliament confirmed that the decision had been finalized and that a major price hike was imminent.
Amir Hossein Sabeti, a Tehran representative, openly criticized the plan in a parliamentary session on Wednesday, October 15. He revealed that the government intends to introduce a “third gasoline price” that would represent a 300 to 500 percent increase compared to current rates. “Now the discussion of triple-price gasoline has become serious,” he said. “Do you want to run the country or mess everything up and put pressure on the people? There are non-price ways to solve the problem.”
Sabeti urged the government to tackle widespread fuel smuggling instead of burdening citizens with higher prices. “If you want to increase the price, it should be 10 to 15 percent. We had a gas station where one person had a financial transaction of over one billion tomans in a month—that is nothing other than smuggling,” he added.
His warning revived memories of the Rouhani administration’s abrupt fuel price hike in November 2019, which triggered mass protests in more than 500 locations across Iran. That unrest was violently crushed, leaving about 1,500 people dead, according to a Reuters report.
A day before Sabeti’s speech, Ismail Hosseini, a member of the Parliament’s Energy Commission, had confirmed in a televised interview that the government already holds the authority to raise fuel prices. “The parliament has delegated this authority to the government,” he said, explaining that the recent resolution allows the cabinet to adjust the prices of energy carriers—including gasoline, oil, and gas—according to inflation rates.
Meanwhile, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad announced on August 16 that the government plans to introduce a new imported fuel, branded as “super special gasoline,” priced at more than 50,000 tomans per liter—over five times the current subsidized rate.
Economists warn that such an increase would send another shockwave through Iran’s fragile economy. With inflation already exceeding 50 percent, they caution that higher fuel prices could trigger a cascade of price hikes in food, transportation, and public services, severely worsening living conditions for millions of families.
Despite the growing public concern, the regime continues to send mixed messages. Just hours after Sabeti’s remarks, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani claimed that “no decision has been made” on gasoline prices. However, she quickly shifted tone, citing “severe sanctions” as the reason for ongoing discussions about “gasoline and imbalances.”
“Our country has been enduring the harshest sanctions for 15 years,” she said, without acknowledging that these sanctions are largely a consequence of the regime’s nuclear escalation and its financial and military support for militant groups abroad. Mohajerani added, “Whatever the government wants to do regarding gasoline, it will not hide anything. We pay a high amount to import gasoline, and our consumption exceeds 197 million liters a day.”
These contradictory statements—acknowledging the need for price increases while denying any final decision—reflect the regime’s familiar tactic of preparing public opinion while attempting to delay political fallout. By invoking “imbalances,” “consumption,” and “sanctions,” officials are laying psychological groundwork for the inevitable price rise, even as they seek to postpone its explosive consequences.
Yet the social and political risks are immense. Iran’s economy remains trapped in a cycle of stagnation and inflation, and fuel prices are tightly linked to the cost of living across all sectors. Experts warn that a steep increase, especially at the levels discussed by officials, could provoke widespread unrest comparable to the nationwide uprisings of November 2019 and the protests of 2022.
If implemented, the decision to multiply gasoline prices could once again expose the regime’s deep disconnect from the daily realities of its people—and reignite the anger simmering just beneath the surface of Iranian society.
