In international politics, Iran has been acknowledged for its unique geopolitical characteristics and advantages. However, geopolitical advantages are not immutable; they can fluctuate, weaken, or strengthen in response to the political, economic, cultural, and human circumstances of each country.
Before delving into the discussion of how the Iranian regime has eroded, or at the very least diminished, Iran’s geopolitical advantages, which could have yielded significant political, economic, and social gains, we must first examine these geopolitical advantages, along with their strengths and weaknesses.
The most significant of these can be summarized as follows: a distinctive geographical location, abundant subterranean resources, particularly oil and gas, human resources, cultural and historical influence in the region, and more.
With its expansive geographical expanse, Iran occupies a strategic juncture where Europe, Asia, and Africa converge, conferring upon it a unique position.
First, Iran is the nation with the longest coastlines along the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Notably, the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, cannot be overstated, as one-fifth of the world’s consumed oil transits through this strait.
Second, Iran is situated along the historical Silk Road, having long been a vital component of this extensive trade network connecting East Asia to Europe.
Third, Iran’s unique geographical proximity to Central Asian and Caucasus countries (former Soviet republics), most of which lack direct access to open seas, underscores its importance. When considering Iran’s cultural and historical influence in these nations, its geographical location becomes even more crucial.
However, what impact has the approximately four decades of the oppressive regime on Iran’s geopolitics?
Strait of Hormuz—Owing to the regime’s bellicose actions and terrorist incidents in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, this vital passageway has lost a significant portion of its global importance as the primary route for oil transportation.
Oil-rich nations in the Persian Gulf region, such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates, Oman, and Bahrain, have started constructing oil pipelines to export their oil and gas to world markets rather than relying on the insecure Strait of Hormuz. These pipelines traverse the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aqaba, the Mediterranean coastline, and the Sea of Oman. Even Iraq, despite its dependence on the regime, has chosen to transport Kirkuk’s oil to Mediterranean ports in Syria with the assistance of Russia.
The Silk Road has also become a risky avenue for economic and commercial interaction with Iran’s partners due to the country’s instability and the imposition of economic and banking sanctions. Consequently, countries along the Silk Road have opted to conduct their trade exchanges via the Trans-Caspian route, bypassing Iran by engaging with Central Asian countries.
Central Asian nations, which, after gaining independence from the former Soviet Union, naturally sought economic and social development through cooperation with Iran, often experience strained relations due to the regime’s interventionist policies and support for terrorism. They aim to keep their distance from this regime as much as possible to avoid its repercussions.
To export Iranian gas to Pakistan and India, a pipeline known as the ‘Peace Pipeline’ was planned to connect Iran and Pakistan. However, Pakistan withdrew from the project out of fear of facing sanctions for dealing with the regime. Despite investing at least $3 billion from the pockets of the Iranian people, this pipeline now lies abandoned in the eastern deserts of the country.
Regarding underground reserves, despite possessing vast oil and gas resources, and ranking second in the world for gas reserves, Iran could have held a privileged position in the market for these two strategic commodities.
However, due to the belligerent and destructive policies of the regime, few countries are willing to support Iranian oil. On the contrary, this regime is dependent on countries like China to purchase Iranian oil, often selling it at significant discounts and facing difficulties in retrieving payments due to sanctions.
Moreover, the regime’s indiscriminate exploitation of oil wells and inadequate infrastructure investments in oil fields has led to the failure of many wells due to oil and water contamination.
Additionally, the regime’s incapacity to extract oil from fields shared with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and countries around the Caspian Sea has allowed these nations to claim Iran’s share, depriving the Iranian people of their natural rights.
The human factor, as a geopolitical element, has been one of Iran’s privileged features in the region. However, some argue that this privilege has been significantly undermined as Iran, under the rule of the mullahs, holds the world record for brain drain.
From the Strait of Hormuz to the Silk Road, and even its energy resources, the regime’s policies have strained Iran’s geopolitical strengths. As a result, the nation has faced both economic and social setbacks, reinforcing the importance of wise, strategic decisions to restore its geopolitical standing and promote progress.
