The Iranian regime faces a growing disconnect between its ideology and the evolving norms of its citizens, according to the head of the Iranian Sociological Association, Saeed Moidfar. In an interview with Jamaran news on May 4th, 2024, Moidfar highlighted the regime’s repeated failures in imposing its desired lifestyle and the compulsory hijab, emphasizing that attempting to return to a pre-2022 protest status quo is futile.
Moidfar points to the past three or four years as a period where the regime has intensified efforts to enforce its vision for society, mirroring the “unification” projects of other dictatorships. He underscores the historical failure of such attempts to eradicate the diverse lifestyles people naturally develop.
Despite this, Moidfar argues, the regime continues to pursue this path with “force and pressure from above,” seemingly oblivious to past experiences and the consequences of their actions. He cites the Iranian revolutionary uprising and the 2022 protests as stark examples of the turmoil and damage caused by such policies, impacting the economy, international standing, and the well-being of the population.
The 2022 protests, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the Morality Police, witnessed widespread civil disobedience from Iranian women who refused to wear the mandatory hijab despite immense pressure and repression. For months, the streets were largely free of the Morality Police’s presence, but since the beginning of 2024, authorities have re-introduced the “Chastity and Hijab” plan with renewed vigor.
These recent initiatives follow pronouncements by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasizing the mandatory hijab and a crackdown by security and judicial institutions on those deemed to “violate religious norms.” While the regime seeks to revert to pre-protest conditions, Moidfar argues that the protests themselves demonstrated the citizens’ preferred lifestyle for a period.
He emphasizes that social norms gain traction and legitimacy only when they resonate with the collective conscience of the people. Notably, even religious individuals are increasingly accepting lifestyles divergent from the regime’s dictates. As Moidfar observes, the gap between the regime’s ideology and societal values widens daily.
He characterizes the 2022 events as a significant consequence of this widening chasm and warns of a potential escalation: “This time it can definitely happen on a much larger scale. It means that maybe after a while they think that everything has calmed down and there is silence and we should start again. It seems that there is a kind of forgetfulness in the government.”
Moidfar recognizes the reality of diverse subcultures coexisting peacefully in the modern world, a concept seemingly alien to the Iranian regime. He posits two potential paths for the government: either align itself with the evolving values of society or face inevitable conflict.
He asserts that the regime’s chosen path of conflict will ultimately lead to failure, inflicting severe damage on both itself and the Iranian people. Moreover, he emphasizes that the societal changes in values, norms, and cultural diversity are now deeply ingrained, rendering even “soft methods” of control ineffective.
In conclusion, the Iranian regime finds itself grappling with a widening societal chasm. Its attempts to enforce its desired lifestyle through force and repression have demonstrably failed, and further attempts to reverse the tide of change are likely to exacerbate existing tensions and lead to even greater turmoil.
