Commanders in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) frequently boast in fiery speeches about the regime’s status as a regional superpower. They claim to dictate the fate of the Middle East and pave the way for a global Islamic government, as exemplified by former IRGC commander Yahya Rahim Safavi’s statement: “The honorable Imam (Khomeini) led the revolution to victory… the ultimate goal is to establish an Islamic state all over the world.“
These pronouncements are often veiled or explicit. The IRGC leadership suggests current dominance in four regional capitals: Beirut (Lebanon), Damascus (Syria), Sana’a (Yemen), and Baghdad (Iraq). They believe further expansion aligns with their vision of a divinely ordained global Islamic state.
Meanwhile, the regime expends significant resources on intense political, terrorist, and seditious campaigns to prevent internal uprisings and maintain control.
Foreign Misconceptions and Domestic Struggles
Many foreign analysts mistakenly perceive the regime as a powerful regional player. However, all signs point to its failure in achieving the goals set after the 1979 revolution by its founder, Ruhollah Khomeini. These goals included establishing an Islamic government in Iran and ultimately, worldwide.
The regime portrays the Islamic Revolution as a multi-stage process, with the current phase aimed at global Islamic rule. However, recent events suggest otherwise.
A Look Behind the Facade: Safavi’s Interview
In a recent interview, Rahim Safavi, former IRGC commander and advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, discussed the regime’s regional meddling and support for terrorism. He emphasized past victories and the importance of “resistance groups” like Hezbollah and Hamas, funded by Iran. He argued for expanding Iran’s “strategic defense” to the Mediterranean and Indian Oceans.
The High Cost of Ambition
Since its inception, the regime has poured billions of dollars into these destabilizing activities in neighboring countries. Countless organizations like Hezbollah benefit from significant annual budgets.
Adding these costs to astronomical expenses like nuclear programs and missile development, it’s clear that roughly half of Iran’s financial resources are funneled into these ambitions. This has led to the severe impoverishment of the Iranian people, evidenced by widespread poverty, unemployment, addiction, and social crises like brain drain and emigration.
A Crumbling Facade?
Responding to Safavi’s claims, Mohammad Hossein Karimipour, a former Iranian parliamentarian, criticized the regime’s declining legitimacy and growing internal and external opposition. He compared the regime’s potential downfall to that of Muammar Gaddafi, stating: “When your nation becomes poorer and angrier day by day… you will become Gaddafi in the sewer pipe.“
Karimipour’s words, combined with the regime’s recent electoral losses, suggest the rapid erosion of its four-decade project of establishing long-term control.
A Loss of Legitimacy and Power
Khamenei’s recent failures, from the Gaza conflict to manipulated elections, have eroded public trust and exposed the regime’s weaknesses. The excessive focus on external ambitions has come at a heavy domestic cost, jeopardizing the regime’s very existence.
