As the new year dawns, all signs point to the Iranian regime’s continued struggle with a multitude of crises. Honeymoon periods, as some regime experts suggest, are simply out of the question. The regime is currently grappling with four interconnected crises: economic woes, social unrest, a worsening internal situation, and the blowback from its warmongering policies.
There’s no need to delve into the entirety of the regime’s economic troubles. It suffices to mention the pronouncements of some economic experts within the regime, who now entertain the possibility of an exchange rate reaching 90,000 to 100,000 tomans.
In his New Year’s address, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promised economic progress, increased domestic production, and greater public participation in the economy. However, the prediction of a 100,000- toman exchange rate paints a different picture.
As regime experts point out, the primary crisis stemming from the economic decline is the widening social gap. This has resulted in a large and uncontrollable segment of the population, which the regime now views as a significant threat to its own survival.
According to these experts, social inequality has created a vast gulf between the regime and the people. The regime lacks the capacity to bridge this gap, as it has become a source of enrichment for corrupt leaders, officials, and other regime elements.
The aforementioned economic crisis cannot be analyzed in isolation from the political crisis. In fact, the economic crisis is a consequence of the political one. This is the inevitable outcome of a totalitarian regime’s economic and political structures.
The regime’s ideological totalitarianism has served as an alibi for its rampant crimes and human rights abuses, particularly against women. This is a major factor behind the public’s rejection of the regime’s ideological and religious pronouncements.
In the political sphere, this totalitarianism has become the regime’s primary tool for silencing dissent. This extends not only to opposition groups seeking to overthrow the regime, but also to those within the regime who advocate for reform while accepting its core foundations.
This explains the growing friction between many regime elements and officials who oppose Supreme Leader Khamenei’s favored and handpicked president, Ebrahim Raisi.
Consequently, Khamenei was forced to disqualify numerous regime officials and candidates during the recent parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections. The ramifications of this self-inflicted blow have reverberated throughout the regime.
The regime’s foreign policy is also undeniably impacted by these internal crises and challenges. The regime’s warmongering, intended to distract from domestic issues and preempt new uprisings, has backfired spectacularly.
Undoubtedly, the international community, which has conveniently turned a blind eye to the regime’s crimes, will eventually be compelled to acknowledge the regime’s true nature: the root cause of instability in the Middle East. They will be forced to seek effective solutions to confront this regime.
Over the past four decades, it has become abundantly clear that neither foreign wars nor sanctions offer a definitive solution. The true answer lies in the international community’s recognition of the Iranian people’s resistance movement and its leading opposition coalition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).
