In an interview with Shargh, a state-run Iranian newspaper, Mohsen Jalilvand, an international affairs analyst, shared his views on the regime’s position amid the current critical situation. His comments reflect growing concern over the regime’s strategic deadlock, which he categorizes as both a “security threat” and an “existence threat.”
From Security to Existence
Jalilvand emphasized a crucial shift between these two forms of threats. He explained, “The key issue is the change from a security threat to an existential threat. Countries must perform optimally when dealing with these challenges. When facing a security threat, a nation can redefine and rebuild its security through strategic planning. However, no decision-making system will risk its very existence.”
He suggested that Iran should engage in “a serious redefinition of the equations” through active diplomacy to address security concerns. However, he warned that under no circumstances should a security threat escalate into an existential crisis for the regime.
Security as a Tool for Repression
In the context of the Iranian regime, the term “security” has long been associated with domestic repression. The regime uses the concept of security not only as a justification for its internal crackdowns but also as a means to justify its aggressive policies abroad, including its involvement in regional conflicts and its support for proxy militias. These two strategies—domestic repression and regional militarism—are complementary pillars of the regime’s approach to maintaining power.
Jalilvand’s remarks also point to the failure of these policies. He implicitly acknowledges that the regime’s strategy of exporting its ideology and engaging in regional conflicts has backfired, turning what was once a security threat into an existential crisis.
The Regime’s Expansionist Agenda
Iran’s leadership, enriched by oil revenues, once boasted of its ambitions to “change the geometry of the world.” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has openly expressed his desire to extend Iran’s influence throughout the Muslim world. He considers neighboring Muslim-majority countries as part of his vision for a wider Islamic caliphate.
In a speech on March 25, 2006, Khamenei declared, “Today, one and a half billion Muslims in different parts of the world are looking at this flag [the flag of the Iranian regime]. This is the strategic depth of our nation and revolution in the Islamic countries of the region—Palestine, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the subcontinent.”
Over the years, Iran has cultivated numerous proxy groups in Arab countries under the guise of defending sacred Islamic sites like Karbala, Najaf, and Masjid al-Aqsa. The deployment of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) officers to countries like Syria, Iraq, and Yemen is often justified as “advisory assistance,” although their true purpose is to extend Iran’s influence.
On February 5, 2016, Khamenei stated, “If these [the so-called ‘sanctuary defenders’] were not fighting, the enemy would come into the country. If they were not stopped, we would have to fight them here in Kermanshah, Hamedan, and other provinces.”
The Regime’s Policies Backfire
Jalilvand’s analysis suggests that the regime’s aggressive foreign policies have failed to address its most pressing internal concern: the potential for a popular uprising and the regime’s eventual downfall. The conflict the regime ignited, particularly with its involvement in the war that began on October 7, 2023, has now escalated into a serious existential threat.
As the regime struggles with this strategic impasse, it is increasingly vulnerable. Its inability to resolve these challenges, both domestic and abroad, opens the door to greater internal unrest. Jalilvand’s conclusion is clear: the regime’s survival is now in jeopardy, and the continuation of these policies may pave the way for a popular uprising and the regime’s eventual overthrow.
Conclusion
The Iranian regime’s overreliance on external conflict and internal repression has reached a tipping point. What began as strategies to bolster security and extend regional influence have now become threats to the regime’s very existence. As the regime faces mounting pressures both at home and abroad, its strategic impasse could lead to a historic turning point in Iran’s political future.
