In a significant development, the dissident group, Uprising Until Overthrow, obtained confidential documents from the Iranian regime parliament, offering a window into the regime’s anxieties surrounding potential international pressure, increased sanctions, and the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by Western nations.
Looming Specter of Sanctions: One document, titled “Management Report of the Monitoring of the Parliament” dated November 22, 2023, explicitly mentions the renewed discussions surrounding the IRGC’s potential inclusion on the terror list and the US efforts to garner international, primarily Western, consensus for this action. This designation, if implemented, would significantly complicate Iran’s economic and political activities on the global stage.
Uncertain Future After Gaza: Another section of the report, titled “The Structure of the Region After the Gaza War,” acknowledges the lack of a definitive approach for the future but outlines four potential outcomes: “the current situation,” “Hamas victory,” “Israel’s victory,” and “continuation of the war without a clear victor.”
Shifting Strategies: From Proxies to Direct Confrontation: Furthermore, the document emphasizes a significant shift in the strategies of the US and Israel following the Gaza war. The report suggests a transition from tackling the regime’s proxy forces in the region, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, to direct confrontation with Iran itself, employing the “octopus doctrine” where attacking the central head (Iran) weakens its peripheral influence (proxies).
Alignment with Recent Reports: The leaked document’s claims about the potential shift in US and Israeli strategy resonate with recent reports from The New York Times. These reports stated that Tehran, presumably to avoid escalating tensions, instructed its regional militia groups to reduce attacks targeting US interests, including military installations. While concerns existed about potential escalation following retaliation for the killing of US soldiers in Jordan, the reported decrease in attacks in Iraq and Syria suggests the regime’s significant influence over its proxies. This observation further underscores the potential effectiveness of the “octopus doctrine” approach.
Beyond Military Options: Exploring Non-Military Countermeasures: Recognizing the potential “unbearability” of a direct military confrontation with the US, the leaked document proposes a series of non-military options that the regime might consider countering potential international pressure:
- Economic Pressure Mitigation: This includes strategies to disrupt Iranian oil sales, while simultaneously mitigating the impact of existing and potential future sanctions. The document mentions enforcing European sanctions based on UN Security Council Resolution 2231, targeting foreign financial resources, and forming an international coalition to advocate for Iran’s interests.
- Countering Designation of IRGC as a Terrorist Organization: The report acknowledges this possibility as a significant concern for the regime and outlines potential countermeasures to mitigate its impact.
Navigating the Maze of Sanctions: Another leaked document reportedly details the regime’s strategies for circumventing sanctions. This document allegedly reveals that individuals involved in sanction-dodging activities are authorized to change their identities, manipulate trade documents, and receive financial incentives for successfully circumventing sanctions. These revelations, if true, raise concerns about the effectiveness of international sanctions on Iran and highlight the regime’s continued efforts to undermine them.
Competing Visions for the Region: US, Israel, and the “Axis of Resistance”: The leak also sheds light on the conflicting approaches of the US, Israel, and the Iranian regime-led “axis of resistance” concerning the regional landscape and the Palestinian issue.
- US and Israel’s Approach: The US seeks to continue regional normalization and pursue the two-state solution in Palestine, advocating for peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians. Israel largely aligns with this approach, although its specific policies and actions have often been criticized by the international community.
- “Axis of Resistance” Approach: The “axis of resistance,” which includes Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, advocates for political initiatives, a stronger Hamas role in the Palestinian territories, and a new regional order built upon resistance to US and Israeli influence. The report authors within the “axis of resistance” oppose the two-state solution and advocate for a public referendum among all Palestinians, including those living in the diaspora, to determine the future of the Palestinian territory. Additionally, they aim to obstruct US-backed reconciliation efforts between Israel and Palestinians and the further normalization of Israel’s relations with Arab countries.
