In recent geopolitical developments, the United States and the United Kingdom have initiated a series of strikes in Yemen, responding to repeated Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. These strikes not only spotlight the ongoing conflict in Yemen but also bring to light Iran’s intricate web of proxies and its enduring influence on political and military dynamics in the Middle East.
Escalation of Efforts
Iran, through its proxies, has long sought to shape outcomes in the Middle East directly and indirectly. The intensified efforts following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 have resulted in a surge of activities by Iran-aligned proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and notably in Yemen—forming what is known as the “Axis of Resistance.” This coalition has taken military actions against Israel and Western interests, prompting a military response from the West.
The Axis of Resistance
This Axis, comprising groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various pro-Iran militias in Iraq and Syria, serves as a conduit for Iran’s influence. Supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Axis operates independently from Iran’s regular military but plays a significant role in the country’s economy, boasting substantial land and naval forces. The Qods Force, a branch of the IRGC, directly links to several militias acting as Iran’s proxies.
De-Americanization and Strategic Strikes
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has articulated Iran’s objective of the “de-Americanization” of the region, signaling a broader agenda beyond the immediate conflict in Gaza. The Houthis, armed with advanced weaponry supplied by Iran, have been launching attacks on Israel, using long-range drones since October 19. The strategic location of the Bab al-Mandab, a chokepoint for shipping at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, provides the Houthis with a platform to disrupt global shipping significantly.
Hezbollah’s Role
Hezbollah, as Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, has emerged as a formidable force since its founding after the 1982 Israel-Lebanon war. With Iran-supplied weapons, Hezbollah can reach deep into Israel, and the group has been actively involved in daily assaults throughout the Gaza conflict.
Regional Alliances
Iran’s alliances extend beyond proxy groups, encompassing deep connections with Syria and the government in Iraq. Shiite groups and the Shiite population in Iraq maintain ties with Iran through official government channels and various militias associated with the IRGC.
Multiple Iranian-backed groups in Iraq are now indicating a heightened willingness to become more deeply involved in the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Groups such as Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS), Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (HHN), and Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) are emerging as potential threats, raising concerns about a possible escalation of attacks against U.S. forces stationed in Iraq.
Akram Al-Kaabi, the Secretary General of HHN, recently declared, “The Islamic Resistance in Iraq took a decision to liberate Iraq from all foreign military presence, and there will be no standing down.” Similarly, KH security chief Abu Ali al-Askari released a statement affirming that the “axis of resistance has the capacity to fight against its enemies and confront them by relying on the internal resources of the resistance.”
Nuclear Developments and Cyber Threats
Recent reports indicate a troubling development in Iran’s nuclear activities, with a tripling of highly enriched uranium production near weapons-grade levels. This has raised concerns globally, hindering progress and leading to accusations of non-cooperation by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency. Additionally, in late December, IRGC-affiliated hackers were accused of cyber attacks on utilities and other industries.
In a recent report, Microsoft wrote that Iranian cyberspies are targeting US defense industrial base organizations with a new backdoor called FalseFont. Microsoft further added that, Iranian cyber operations targeting Western entities are growing more sophisticated and effective as part of an overall shift among state-backed hacking groups toward espionage.
Linkages to Global Conflicts
As attention shifts to the conflict in Gaza, Iran emerges as a link to both the Gaza conflict and the war in Ukraine. The considerable strength displayed by Iran’s proxies in the three months since the Israel-Hamas war began adds complexity to the evolving geopolitical landscape.
In conclusion, the intricate interplay of strategic strikes, proxy alliances, nuclear developments, and cyber threats underscores the multifaceted nature of Iran’s influence in the region and its global implications. The West faces significant challenges in navigating this complex geopolitical terrain.
