A recent report by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) raises fresh alarms about Iran’s nuclear program. The report, based on satellite imagery analysis, reveals that Iran has completed construction of tunnels for a deeply buried nuclear facility near Natanz. This underground complex, potentially invulnerable to airstrikes, could house enrichment halls for producing weapons-grade uranium.
Iran claims this new site is simply a replacement for a similar above-ground facility destroyed by Israel in 2020. However, experts believe the new location could be up to 150 meters deep, exceeding the depth of Iran’s existing Fordow enrichment plant. This raises concerns that Iran might be building a clandestine enrichment facility, further blurring the lines of its nuclear ambitions.
Iran’s history of secrecy regarding its nuclear program is also troubling. They have repeatedly failed to declare new enrichment facilities to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog. Additionally, they haven’t provided design information as required by international safeguards agreements. This lack of transparency echoes past construction of facilities like Natanz and Fordow, raising suspicions about future undeclared sites.
These developments come amidst the practically defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. This 2015 agreement aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. But the weak sanctions and the ongoing appeasement policy did not prevent the regime from continuing its nuclear program hidden.
Thus, the Trump administration withdrew in 2018 from the nuclear deal. Iran’s regime claimed that the rollback from its commitments and enriching uranium to higher levels and expanding its stockpile is due to the US government’s withdrawal. But all the signs showed that the regime never stopped its nuclear ambitions, even before the US government’s decision.
The IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, recently emphasized the critical limitations on inspector access in Iran. He stressed that while the agency recently noted a decrease in high-enriched uranium stockpiles, the overall trend points towards an increase in materials with very high enrichment levels. This contradicts the JCPOA’s goals and fuels concerns about potential weapons development.
Grossi further criticized the limited access granted to IAEA inspectors, describing it as insufficient for the nature of the problem. He declared the JCPOA essentially a shell due to Iran’s advancements and its abandonment of key commitments.
The Director General’s remarks highlight a critical difference between the current situation and the one envisioned by the JCPOA in 2015. Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear capabilities, with faster and more efficient centrifuges. Simply returning to the original agreement may not be enough to address these advancements.
The future of the JCPOA remains uncertain. While both sides verbally acknowledge a desire to revive it, the reality is a far cry from the 2015 agreement. Iran’s continued lack of transparency and its expansion of nuclear activities pose significant challenges. Additionally, the limitations imposed on IAEA inspectors leave the international community with an incomplete picture, hindering efforts to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s program.
The consequences of failing to address these issues could be dire. As Grossi cautioned, the agency cannot guarantee the peaceful nature of Iran regime’s program without full transparency and inspections. This echoes the Iraq experience, where the lack of proper oversight led to bad consequences, as he further stated. The international community must work towards a solution that stop the Iranian regime from acquiring nuclear weapons and trigger a potential nuclear arms race in the region.
