Iran regime’s press and media are currently abuzz with speculations surrounding the country’s nuclear project. Various factions within the regime are attempting to present Iran as a formidable power on the cusp of becoming a nuclear state.

In a recent speech on June 11, regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei sought to project the regime as possessing the capability to obtain a nuclear bomb, while emphasizing their adherence to religious principles that prohibit the pursuit of such weapons.

However, examining the underlying factors that have hindered Khamenei’s ambitions and transformed Iran’s nuclear industry into a significant challenge is crucial. Leaked documents and public news shed light on the current situation and shed some insight into Khamenei’s motivations and obstacles.

The Complexities of Iran’s Nuclear Program:

One document recently released by the dissident group “GhyamSarnegouni” (Uprising Until Overthrow) contains a confidential letter from the Majlis Research Center to President Ebrahim Raisi.

The letter expresses dissatisfaction with the regime’s concessions to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) without receiving substantial benefits in return. The Research Center suggests that Iran could have limited its concessions to a possible agreement with the West rather than providing them to the IAEA.

The second document, also published by the same group, reveals a report from the head of the ‘Presidential International Legal Affairs Center’ to the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

The report addresses the risks and potential international legal scenarios in light of recent events. It emphasizes the need for urgent measures, including establishing the groundwork for implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), resolving the Ukrainian plane incident, dispelling doubts about Iran’s involvement in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, and forming a fact-finding committee.

These leaked documents highlight the regime’s concerns and fears regarding its malign activities. Nasser Kanaani Moghadam, the regime’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, confirmed negotiations with the United States, asserting the desire to return to the JCPOA and acknowledging ongoing talks in Muscat, Oman. Western media reports have also indicated that the discussions between US government representatives and Iranian officials have focused on nuclear issues, safeguard obligations, and the release of hostages.

Khamenei’s Delicate Balancing Act

Examining the content of these documents and published news provides valuable insights into the meaning behind Khamenei’s speech on June 11. While he boasted about Iran’s potential to develop nuclear weapons, he also expressed support for negotiations. This duality in his stance was also interpreted by the Western press as a message endorsing diplomatic discussions.

It is evident that Khamenei is determined to achieve an atomic bomb, but is acutely aware of the dangers associated with this path. The primary and decisive factor that looms over Iran’s nuclear ambitions is the nationwide uprising of the Iranian people. Khamenei realizes that this uprising, sooner or later, has the potential to fundamentally change the political landscape of Iran and threaten the existence of its regime.

During a recent interview, the editor of Noor News, a media outlet affiliated with the regime’s Supreme National Security Council, openly acknowledged the current highly charged atmosphere prevailing in society. He stated, “We are currently witnessing a unique process that aims to replicate past events, with the most recent example occurring during the autumn of 2022.”