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A Precise Point About the Situation in Iran

Iran’s protesting people, November 2019, during the gas price hike protests.
Iran’s protesting people, November 2019, during the gas price hike protests.

Iranian society is in turmoil, and all signs suggest the situation is ripe for an uprising and revolution in Iran.

This undeniable maturity of the current situation has led to the presence of new factors and new reactions around it. Naturally, the clerical establishment stands to lose everything if the tide turns.

The government knowing that this situation has changed from a reality to a daily challenge is measuring its position in the balance of the equilibrium of the forces.

On one side of this balance is the turbulent society and on the other is the government with a heavy burden of more than 40 years of corruption and crime. The government and the clerical rulers are forced to accept the certitude of a revolution that will likely face them in a short time.

Iran’s society with such an important specification is preparing itself for the upcoming presidential election. An election that despite the previous elections is a real challenge for the government. So, without any doubt any comment and expression from the officials and elements of this rule is predicting a situation that is tied to the existence or inexistence of the mullahs’ rule.

So, the system is trying its most to prevent and when not capable to prevent, to slow down this current. And that is the main job of the so-called reformists. Living in a paradox to show from one side that they are not belonging to this rule, but from the other side they are forced to support this rule and prevent its overthrow, because they are just a rootless appendix to this rule and without it, they have no chance to survive, because the people will not support them anymore.

So, they are making propaganda for this rule to ensure its existence and are warning the people over the negative effects of a revolution for example:

“We should not have another revolution again. Revolutions are costly, and the consequences of most revolutions are war.” (State-run daily Etemad Online, April 16, 2021)

They are trying to play the role of the middleman but in a deceptive way as though they are not part of this corrupt rule:

“We do not have a dialogue between the government and civil society. The consequences of revolutions are costly, and this has made the system problematic in terms of legitimacy, participation, and efficiency. The people distrusted the government and were disappointed with the government to build their future. The government is suspicious to the people and has been constantly alarmed since 2009. The government will receive a slap by turning its back on the people.” (State-run daily Etemad Online, April 16, 2021)

The precise point that from their perspective, there is no doubt that change in Iran is unstoppable.

“There are all kinds of grievances in our country, and these should be removed, not aggregated. If they are aggregated, they will make problems for us. A new revolution must be prevented in the country. This polarization of social relations becomes a revolutionary situation if it intensifies too much.” (Etemad Online website quoting Hamid Reza Jalaeipour, April 16, 2021)