Over the past decade, the alarm bells signaling the acceleration of the climate crisis in Iran have rung incessantly. Environmental experts warn that in central regions, the confluence of water scarcity, air pollution, and land subsidence is pushing some major cities, like Isfahan, to the brink of uninhabitability in the near future.
Amidst days when heightened air pollution, resulting from increased pollutants, afflicts Iran’s urban populace, environmental experts issue warnings that industries in these cities are wreaking havoc on the environment through pollution and excessive water extraction.
In an interview with the Entekhabe news website on Saturday, December 9, Mohammad Darvish, an environmental expert, expressed his concerns regarding the recent pollution, particularly targeting the development plans of iron smelters such as Mobarakeh Steel and Isfahan Refinery.
Darvish underscored the critical situation in Isfahan, stating, “The first and foremost step is to halt any further loading onto these water facilities.” As a second step, he emphasized the need to identify ways to curtail pollution sources in Isfahan, pointing to the high pollution levels from iron smelting ‘coking’ units.
Despite the prevailing macro-environmental management practices in Iran, this environmental activist foresees an inevitable mass migration from Isfahan province. According to Darvish, the only uncertainty lies in the timing of this migration. The pessimistic projection sets the depletion of underground water reservoirs in 2030, forcing Isfahani citizens to migrate. Alternatively, given that Isfahan already experiences more unhealthy days than Ahvaz and Tehran, migration could occur sooner due to land subsidence, air pollution, and the depletion of all environmental resources, even before the water crisis fully unfolds.
Criticizing current plans to alleviate water shortages in the province, Mohammad Darvish remarked, “Transferring water from the Sea of Oman to cater to industrial needs is detrimental. If water is sourced from the Sea of Oman, the people of Isfahan will find it hard to breathe.”
Adding to the threats faced by Isfahan and other central cities in Iran is land subsidence, which now imperils various parts of Isfahan province. Mohammad Darvish challenges the efficacy of using industrial wastewater to alleviate pressure on agricultural water, asserting that it does not address the root problem. He explains, “When wastewater is treated, given the negative water balance in the Isfahan Plain and its vicinity, it should be replenished to reduce the risk of subsidence, not reused in the industrial sector.”
In a June 2023 interview with geologists, Etemad newspaper reported that the subsidence rate in Isfahan is 40 times the world average—a trend rapidly escalating and posing a grave threat to one of Iran’s most historic cities.
According to the Geological Organization’s 2016 reports, 2,300 square kilometers of Isfahan province’s plains were at risk of land subsidence, a figure that skyrocketed to nearly 10,000 square kilometers by 2020. In a striking example, Beheshti Airport in Isfahan experiences subsidence between 8 and 12 cm annually.
In recent years, numerous reports detailing the destructive consequences of subsidence on residential areas and historical monuments in Isfahan province have surfaced. These underscore the imminent need for action, emphasizing that due to destructive and environmentally unsound management, the emergency evacuation of Isfahan is becoming increasingly likely.
