In the Iranian regime, the presence and participation of the people outside the country’s fate and important decisions neither alter anything nor hold significance. Nevertheless, the regime’s officials persistently assert that the country operates as a republic based on democratic principles. To bolster their legitimacy, they consistently emphasize free elections and people’s participation.
Phrases such as ‘passionate elections,’ ‘passionate march,’ and ‘passionate presence and participation’ have been frequently echoed by the regime’s officials and media over the past four decades. Even when public attendance was meager, such claims persisted. However, the rulers of the regime now recognize that people’s participation in the upcoming parliamentary elections will be so low that it can no longer be labeled a ‘passionate election.’
This dilemma is what is often referred to as the crisis of legitimacy. It has set off alarms in government-affiliated media, compelling newspapers like Kayhan to implore the regime’s so-called reformists to engage in the election process, despite all factions losing legitimacy during the 2019 protests.
Previously advocating for the complete removal of reformists from the political arena, Kayhan now contends in a new article that the March elections should be ‘passionate.’ They assert that the political existence of reformists hinges on their distancing from radicals, warning that those who ignore this advice will be the losers.
While this media outlet suggests that the participation of reformists will stave off ‘political decline,’ a closer look reveals deep-seated worries among the regime’s rulers about both the March parliamentary elections and the elections of the Assembly of Experts.
In a report on December 7, Amwaj Media addressed Iran’s upcoming elections, citing the latest polls, and confirmed that the regime is grappling with a complex mystery.
The ISNA news agency quoted Hasan Moslami Nayini, head of Academic Jihad, stating that the first wave of the Iranian Students’ Opinion Center survey indicates that the elections are not a top priority for the people. According to the survey, 27.9% expressed an intention to participate in the elections, 7.4% indicated a ‘low probability,’ and 36% declared no intention to participate at all, with almost 22% are still undecided.
Abbas Abdi suggests that the actual participation may be even lower than the poll numbers, estimating that in Tehran, less than 15% of eligible individuals will vote, despite the capital having the largest number of parliamentary seats at 30.
The crisis of low public participation or even election boycotts in previous periods posed a challenge for the regime, reaching its peak during the parliament elections in 2018. However, as noted in the Amwaj Media report, regime officials at that time managed to attribute the low turnout to the Coronavirus epidemic, an excuse that no longer holds.
For the regime’s rulers, achieving desired election results is a priority. They pursue this through methods such as disqualification and governmental purification. However, people’s participation is also crucial, as it serves as a reference and legitimizing document.
Following the 2022 protests, the gap between the people of Iran and the regime has widened, with many religious groups and individuals publicly distancing themselves.
Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s repeated claims of democracy, he rejected any proposed solution from his closest advisors. The rulers of the regime now face the challenge of bridging this gap, and although their exact strategies remain unclear, they are contemplating solutions rooted in jurisprudence.
In June 2009, during protests against the presidential election results, Mohammad Yazdi, a figure close to Khamenei, asserted in a speech that ‘rule in the Islamic system is of divine origin, and the ruler derives legitimacy from God, not the people.’ This claim, reiterated by clerics close to the regime, escalated to the point where Kazem Sediqi, the interim Friday prayer Imam of Tehran, asserted in June 2023 that the leader of the Islamic Republic was appointed by God.
