The head of Iran’s Welfare Organization has revealed a striking rise in the national disability rate, marking a turning point in the country’s public health and social care landscape. According to Javad Hosseini, the findings of the latest National Disability Epidemiology Survey indicate that approximately 11.5% of Iran’s population—equivalent to 9.5 million people—are currently living with some form of disability in 2024.
A Sharp Statistical Leap
Speaking at a meeting of the Gonabad County Administrative Council on March 29, Hosseini noted that the survey, which included data from 297,000 households within the welfare target community, shows a significant increase compared to past years. In 2011, the disability rate was officially reported at only 1.3%—a figure that experts now consider vastly underestimated due to flawed methodologies and outdated standards.
The 2011 census had identified only 970,000 people with disabilities out of a population of 75 million. Experts attribute this low number to the poorly designed questionnaires and a lack of compliance with international standards, particularly those established by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Understanding the Types and Causes of Disability
The new survey, modeled on the WHO’s disability identification framework, captures a broader range of conditions—including physical-motor impairments, low vision and hearing, autism spectrum disorders, mental and cognitive challenges, as well as disabilities resulting from traffic accidents and medical malpractice.
The findings reveal the following breakdown:
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Physical-motor disabilities: 6.6%
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Visual impairments: 3.6%
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Hearing impairments: 1.8%
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Mental-cognitive disorders: 1.8%
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Speech and voice disorders: 0.8%
Hosseini emphasized that 3,100 rehabilitation and training centers across Iran currently offer services in 13 specialized areas. Yet, with demand rapidly rising, these facilities are struggling to keep up—especially in addressing complex conditions such as autism.
Autism on the Rise
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) presents some of the most pressing challenges. The head of the Welfare Organization described caring for autistic children as “the most difficult” among all disabilities. He stated that expanding specialized schools for children with autism is now a national priority.
According to the Iranian Autism Association, at least 1 in every 100 births in the country results in a child with ASD. Globally sourced data shows that the number of people with autism in Iran rose from 170,000 in 1990 to 234,000 in 2019—a trend that experts believe has continued to accelerate.
Road Accidents and Population Policies: Key Drivers
In addition to congenital and neurological disorders, external factors like traffic accidents and population aging are major contributors to the disability rate. Each year, 67,000 disabilities result from road incidents alone. Despite national awareness campaigns, traffic injuries remain widespread due to substandard road design, vehicle safety issues, and reckless driving behavior.
During the Nowruz holidays in March 2025, 505 people died and 12,000 were injured in traffic accidents in just 13 days, with about 100 individuals suffering permanent disabilities daily, according to police reports.
Meanwhile, the aging population continues to strain the healthcare system. Health officials warn that, within the next decade, the country may face a crisis in elderly care as the demand for long-term rehabilitation and support services outpaces capacity.
The Controversial Elimination of Prenatal Screening
Another significant factor contributing to the rise in disability rates is the elimination of prenatal screening programs. Originally approved during the 12th government and implemented under the 13th, this policy change sparked strong opposition from the Ministries of Health and Welfare.
In 2021, the Ministry of Health predicted that ending prenatal screening would result in at least 70,000 annual births of children with genetic or congenital disabilities, including Down syndrome. Psychologists have since reported an increase in anxiety among expectant mothers, with pregnancy now perceived as a more stressful experience for many due to heightened uncertainty.
A Call for Data-Driven Policy
While the current disability rate in Iran is still slightly below the global average of 15%, the speed of its increase has alarmed both policymakers and healthcare experts. Many warn that without reliable data and long-term planning, Iran’s healthcare system will be unable to meet the growing demand for disability services.
Experts stress the urgent need for:
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Regular, accurate statistical surveys to capture the true scope of disabilities
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Public education campaigns to raise awareness of conditions like autism, hearing loss, and vision impairment
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Policy reform that aligns with international standards and responds to demographic changes
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Reevaluation of population policies, including those related to prenatal screening and elderly care
Conclusion
The surge in Iran’s disability rate is more than just a statistical anomaly—it is a reflection of systemic gaps in healthcare, infrastructure, and policymaking. With millions of Iranians now living with disabilities, the government faces a critical test: Will it rise to the challenge with targeted investments and evidence-based policies, or allow this growing crisis to deepen further?
