Confidential letter reveals Tehran’s deep fears over economic collapse, public unrest, and loss of regional influence amid possible return of UN sanctions.
The Iranian regime’s Ministry of Intelligence has issued a confidential warning to key ministries and state institutions, cautioning that the potential reinstatement of United Nations sanctions could have grave repercussions for the country’s economy and stability.
According to the contents of the letter, the return of sanctions could trigger a complete halt in oil sales, plunging Iran into a deep economic crisis. The ministry explicitly warned that such conditions could lead to “intensification of public discontent” and “the formation of social threats resulting from the economic crisis.” In the regime’s security lexicon, these phrases signal serious fears of widespread protests and even a nationwide uprising.
The document reflects the security apparatus’s acknowledgment of the country’s fragile condition and its concern over the potential for a major social eruption. The confidential nature of the warning underscores the leadership’s awareness of the risks and its attempts to prevent the political fallout of an economic collapse.
Signs of Regime Anxiety at Home and Abroad
Recent high-level changes within Iran’s security leadership further illustrate the regime’s mounting concerns. One key development was the appointment of Ali Larijani as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Shortly after assuming the role, Larijani traveled to Lebanon and Iraq—countries where Iran’s regional influence is under growing pressure.
In Lebanon, the government has formally approved the disarmament of Hezbollah, while in Iraq, U.S. pressure is mounting to curb the role of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). These measures threaten the Iranian regime’s longstanding strategy of using proxy groups as regional arms, into which it has poured substantial financial and military resources over decades.
Larijani’s visits were widely seen as an effort to safeguard the regime’s diminishing influence by urging local authorities to halt disarmament initiatives. However, his actions have been interpreted as blatant interference in the internal affairs of both countries, drawing criticism from the Lebanese government and public.
Pushback from Lebanon and Iraq
The governments of Lebanon and Iraq have made clear that they will not tolerate foreign-backed militias operating independently within their borders. Both have demanded an end to Iranian regime support for Hezbollah and the PMF, calling for full security control to be vested in their official armed forces.
Despite these firm positions, Tehran has refused to back down. Larijani and other senior officials have reportedly increased pressure on these governments to reverse their decisions, a move that underscores the regime’s dependence on proxy warfare to sustain its regional presence.
A Costly Strategy Amid Domestic Crisis
Analysts note that this persistence reflects not strength, but desperation. Facing economic deterioration at home and declining influence abroad, the regime is doubling down on its warmongering policies rather than reassessing its approach. The continued support for armed proxies risks fueling further instability in the Middle East and potentially encouraging new waves of terrorism.
Domestically, this policy carries heavy costs. While ordinary Iranians endure soaring inflation, widespread unemployment, and shortages of basic resources, significant portions of national wealth and military capability are being channeled into foreign proxy operations. This approach not only fails to address the country’s internal crises but actively exacerbates them, deepening public resentment.
Instead of responding to popular demands and prioritizing economic recovery, the regime remains committed to sustaining its regional influence at all costs—a strategy that may ultimately accelerate both domestic unrest and regional isolation.
