Experts warn that the new Lar–Latian water transfer plan will accelerate drought and ecological collapse in northern Iran
In a striking and alarming statement, Iranian regime president Masoud Pezeshkian recently warned that if it doesn’t rain by late December, “Tehran must be evacuated.” His government is now rushing ahead with an emergency project to divert water from the Lar Dam in Mazandaran Province to the Latian Dam near Tehran — a plan the regime calls “Tehran’s lifeline project.”
However, environmental experts warn that this initiative, like other inter-basin water transfer projects of recent decades, will not solve Tehran’s water crisis. Instead, they say it will deepen drought conditions, worsen land subsidence, and devastate ecosystems in northern Iran.
Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian, Tehran’s provincial governor, confirmed on November 10 that the project is underway. “With government and Tehran Municipality funding, the Lar-to-Latian transfer is being implemented,” he said. “We must adhere to the timetable and secure liquidity. Funding will come from government allocations, city council support, and the Ministry of Energy’s asset monetization capacity.”
The plan revives a long-stalled project that had been suspended for six years following environmental objections and warnings of catastrophic damage to Mazandaran’s lakes, forests, and grasslands. Despite this, the regime has decided to move forward amid one of the worst droughts in Tehran’s modern history.
According to regime reports, Lar Dam itself is almost dry — holding only 14 million cubic meters of water, less than 1.5% of its 960-million-cubic-meter capacity. Built on fractured limestone, the dam leaks an estimated 220–250 million cubic meters of water annually through underground fissures that reemerge as springs and rivers in the Larijan and Amol areas — a phenomenon known as “water escape.” For decades, this leakage naturally irrigated farmlands and pastures in the region.
Constructed in 1982, the Lar Dam has long been known as an engineering failure. Experts say that due to poor geological assessments and the absence of waterproofing injection layers, the dam’s limestone foundation cracked early, turning it into one of the world’s most notorious cases of water loss.
Now, the Pezeshkian government intends to block the natural flow of this escaped water by building a 28-kilometer tunnel linking Lar to Latian, channeling the remaining flow directly to Tehran. According to the head of Tehran’s Water and Wastewater Company, the project is expected to deliver 165 million cubic meters of water annually to the capital.
Tehran is now in its sixth consecutive year of drought. Water storage in its five main dams — Taleghan, Amir Kabir, Latian, Mamloo, and Lar — has fallen below 11% of capacity. Official figures show that the city consumes about three million cubic meters of water daily, leaving reserves sufficient for only about 100 days.
Experts, however, warn that inter-basin transfers only shift the crisis elsewhere. Banafsheh Zahraei, an Iranian water management specialist, told ISNA news agency:
“Transferring water from Lar and Latian to Tehran has already caused severe depletion of groundwater in Varamin and land subsidence in Mazandaran. Inter-basin transfers don’t solve the problem — they just relocate it.”
Mazandaran itself is facing its own water emergency. Reduced rainfall, rapid population growth due to migration, uncontrolled construction, and illegal groundwater extraction have pushed its water tables to historic lows. Water rationing has become routine during summer months in Babolsar, Ramsar, Chalous, Nowshahr, Babol, Amol, and Qaemshahr. Experts warn that diverting the remaining outflow from Lar Dam to Tehran could dry up key springs in the Larijan region, forcing tens of thousands of rural and urban residents into climate-induced migration.
This is not the first time the regime has resorted to destructive water transfer projects. Controversial plans such as the Finsek Dam — intended to divert the Tajan River’s headwaters to Semnan — and proposals to transfer water from the Sefidrud River to central provinces have drawn years of protests from environmental activists.
Transferring water from Mazandaran to the central provinces is a reward for mismanagement — and a death sentence for Iran’s greenest region. With these projects, we are not solving the crisis; we are packaging it and exporting it.
The Pezeshkian government’s “solution” to Tehran’s water emergency is yet another act of ecological short-sightedness. By draining Mazandaran’s lifelines to quench the capital’s unsustainable consumption, the regime risks triggering one of the most severe environmental collapses in Iran’s modern history.
