Food prices double, meat and dairy become luxuries, and millions fall below the poverty line while the regime fuels inflation through waste, sanctions, and plunder
The latest report from Iran’s Statistical Center paints one of the bleakest pictures of the country’s economy in recent years. According to the data for October (Mehr), the annual inflation rate has surged to 38.9%, marking a 1.4-point increase from the previous month — the highest level in 19 months. The point-to-point inflation, which compares prices to the same month last year, has reached 48.6%, its highest level in 29 months, signaling the collapse of the regime’s promise to curb soaring prices.
Economists warn that these figures reflect a full-scale inflationary spiral, fueled by budget deficits, corruption, and failed monetary policies. Far from stabilizing prices, the regime’s policies have worsened living conditions for ordinary Iranians while enriching regime-linked institutions and elites.
Food Prices Drive a New Wave of Poverty
The data show that the sharpest price increases have occurred in three key categories: “miscellaneous goods and services” (65.2%), “food and beverages” (64.3%), and “tobacco” (55.5%). These spikes have directly expanded absolute poverty, as basic food items now consume most of a family’s income.
Among food groups, bread and grains saw nearly 98% inflation, followed by fruits (94%) and vegetables (77%). For low-income families, the cost of essential nutrition has become unbearable. Experts warn that inflation in these categories is far above the national average, pushing millions further below the poverty line.
While the market was still reeling from the summer surge in dairy prices, October brought another round of increases across protein and dairy products. The average price of beef — about 500,000 tomans per kilogram in April — has now exceeded one million tomans by early November.
A Collapse in Food Security
The doubling of meat prices in just seven months underscores the regime’s total failure to control the food market. Prices for lamb and veal now range from 810,000 to 1.28 million tomans per kilogram, making them unaffordable for most families.
In addition, the government officially approved a 30% increase in dairy prices in October — the fourth official hike since the start of the 14th administration. Overall, dairy prices have risen more than 75% since September 2024. Nutrition experts warn that this trend will drive protein deficiency and “caloric poverty”, particularly among children in low-income families.
Economic analysts cite policy incoherence, lack of support for domestic producers, and rising energy and transportation costs as key drivers of the persistent inflation in food and essential goods.
26 Million Iranians in Absolute Poverty
The social consequences of this crisis are devastating. According to Hadi Mousavi-Nik, a member of the regime’s parliamentary research center, 26 million Iranians now live in absolute poverty, meaning their income cannot cover even the most basic needs. Another four million people face severe poverty, unable to afford adequate daily nutrition.
The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, has reached 39%, placing Iran among the world’s most unequal societies. With real wages collapsing and prices climbing month after month, inequality has surged to record levels.
Regime Mismanagement and Systemic Corruption
Economists point to massive budget deficits, renewed sanctions, and shrinking foreign currency reserves as the structural causes behind the inflation surge. However, many stress that the core of the crisis lies in the regime’s corruption and plunder — where public wealth is siphoned off by state institutions, military conglomerates, and clerical foundations while social welfare programs collapse.
Experts predict that inflation in food items could exceed 75% by winter, with point-to-point inflation surpassing 50% before year’s end. They warn that continued deficit spending and money printing will further erode purchasing power and public health.
Broken Promises and Growing Despair
Officials have reluctantly admitted the need for urgent budget reform, even though half the fiscal year has already passed. The regime’s Seventh Development Plan, launched without sustainable financing, has only deepened economic paralysis. Investment has collapsed, production is stagnant, and prices continue their relentless climb.
The Minister of Economy’s repeated pledges to restructure the budget and cut government waste have produced no results. Even the promised unified currency exchange rate, meant to increase transparency, was suspended due to “severe inflationary risks,” according to the Plan and Budget Organization. Meanwhile, despite acknowledging the unsustainable burden of fuel subsidies, the government retreated from raising gasoline prices — fearing a new wave of social unrest.
A Regime That Feeds on Crisis
With inflation surpassing 48%, Iran’s economy now faces its most volatile phase in years. The situation exposes not just policy failure, but the regime’s deeper crisis: a system built on corruption, waste, and exploitation that perpetuates poverty to preserve its control.
Under this regime, every economic indicator translates into human suffering — children deprived of nutrition, families stripped of dignity, and a society where even survival has become unaffordable.
The Islamic Republic has turned Iran into a country where wealth is hoarded by the ruling elite while the majority are crushed beneath the weight of their own currency — and the promises of a regime that long ago stopped even pretending to care.
