In a recent report published by Etemad newspaper on August 17, Hassan Taei, the former vice president of development, entrepreneurship, and employment at Iran’s Ministry of Labor, painted a concerning picture of Iran’s economic future. His insights shed light on the significant challenges facing the country’s job market and overall prosperity.
Taei emphasized that for Iran to achieve a relatively prosperous society, its labor force would need to more than double, increasing from the current 26 million to 55 million people. However, he described this goal as “impossible” given the country’s economic stagnation since 2004.
“An economy that hasn’t managed to grow by an average of 1 percent since 2004 cannot create a million job opportunities,” Taei stated. He explained that creating a million jobs would require generating 300 new positions daily, a feat he deems unfeasible for Iran’s current economic situation.
This sobering assessment comes in the wake of criticism directed at the government’s statistics by the state-run newspaper Donya-e Eghtesad in May. The publication argued that the government’s claims of reduced unemployment rates were misleading, as they did not correlate with increased economic growth or noticeable improvements in citizens’ lives.
Taei highlighted a troubling trend where skilled workers, including industrial workers and experts, are leaving their positions in public and private companies to work in less specialized fields such as ride-sharing services or as delivery couriers. This shift is partly attributed to the fact that the minimum wage for workers subject to labor law is approximately one-third of the poverty line.
The former official noted that only 3 million job opportunities were created in the last 20 years. He stressed the need for developing education, expertise, and knowledge to create jobs, emphasizing that this goes beyond merely offering credentials and should focus on increasing the level of knowledge and specialization.
Looking ahead, Taei projected that Iran’s population will reach 95 million by 2031. To meet international standards, he suggested that the working population should be at least 50 million, with an inflation rate around 9 percent and a labor force participation rate exceeding 70 percent. Currently, Iran’s participation rate stands at about 41%.
Taei also pointed out that the current subsistence rate in Iran is close to four, meaning one person’s income supports four people. Given these conditions, he believes that even creating 300 jobs daily is not feasible in Iran.
To address these challenges, Taei emphasized the need for continuous reform of the administrative system to facilitate efficient economic activities. He argued that job creation is not merely an economic policy but a product of a system, requiring institutional foundations and coherent intellectual and executive frameworks.
In conclusion, Taei highlighted that real democracy, efficient bureaucracy, and genuine development are organic links of an advanced society – elements he suggests are lacking in Iran.
