The Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has indicated as such in recent speeches and policies have been adopted so that it does not do anything that would trigger a war with the US.

There was talk about the United States reimposing crippling economic sanctions on Iran and many advised the Trump administration not to do this because it was certain to start a war, especially because progress on its ballistic missile program was ongoing. Iran could potentially accelerate the ballistic missile program if the US reimposed sanctions.

Mid-October was when President Trump announced that the new US strategy towards the Islamic Republic would be confrontational and the Supreme Leader reacted to this by saying there will be no military confrontation. He added that there could be some issues as a result of Trump’s decision, therefore Iran would have to be “careful”.

The Supreme Leader appeared certain that there would be no war. Possibly because he knows it would be at such a high cost for the US. However, others say that it is because the Iranian regime wants to start stepping away from activities that could provoke a confrontation.

Indeed, this may be the case because the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Ali Jafari, said a few weeks ago that the country’s ballistic missile range would be limited to 2,000 kilometres. He said that this was Khamenei’s decision and said that although the range could be increased in the future, 2,000 kilometres is sufficient “for now”.

Iran’s ballistic missile program is one of the United States’ biggest issues with the Islamic Republic and, if Iran sticks to its word, that is one less contention point between the two nations.

It is also in Iran’s interests because the European Union has started to up its rhetoric against Iran’s ballistic missile program and there was a real possibility that it too could have adopted a far more aggressive approach to the subject. It also makes the European Union believe that it can strike Iran’s belligerence regarding this issue off the list and halt it from imposing sanctions. The EU is offering Iran some positive economic incentives in terms of trade, so it is important to Iran that it does not lose this.

President Trump has spoken about the people of Iran that are suffering greatly under the Iranian regime. In 2009, the regime almost collapsed under the pressure of the people who participated in an uprising and the threat is still there. The Trump administration hinted at a peaceful transition of leadership in Iran, and if it backs the people of Iran, the Iranian regime will be no longer.