Currently, there is a great deal of buzz in the international political arena and news outlets regarding potential agreements between the Iranian regime and Western countries, especially the United States.
There is a plethora of information, often contradictory, regarding the likelihood of a temporary agreement.
However, one aspect that is frequently overlooked is the underlying motive behind the political moves initiated by Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the regime, to resolve his conflicts with the world.
Can these political maneuvers, which may eventually result in minor deals and contracts, alleviate Khamenei’s troubles? Can they shield him from the growing wave of anger and uprisings among the people, ultimately preventing his overthrow?
To comprehend Khamenei’s seemingly contradictory behavior, it is crucial to grasp the nature of his predicament.
In a speech on the Persian New Year, Khamenei expressed his disappointment with the current president, Ebrahim Raisi, and his government, as he faced significant challenges stemming from the consequences of the 2022 uprising.
He acknowledged the economy as the main problem in the year 2023, denouncing the supposed ineffectiveness of Raisi’s government.
Essentially, Khamenei and his advisors recognized that one of the primary reasons for the people’s discontent and anger was economic problems directly affecting their livelihoods. They realized the necessity of addressing this issue seriously.
With Khamenei’s approval, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Supreme National Security Council adopted a strategy of “begging diplomacy.”
They initially pursued agreements with Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries and aimed to extend this diplomatic approach to Europe and America.
The recent news dominating the headlines is a result of this policy. Pressured by uprisings and deep public dissatisfaction, Khamenei has resorted to concessions that would have previously been rejected and met with anger during the tenure of former regime president Hassan Rouhani.
Consequently, the weakened mullahs’ regime is utilizing its limited power to manipulate the West, keeping the policy of appeasement alive.
Undoubtedly, both Khamenei and those advocating appeasement will make every effort to achieve these deceptive projects, seeking to suppress uprisings and prevent the regime’s overthrow.
However, three significant obstacles obstruct the path of appeasement and hinder its desired outcomes:
- The global balance of power no longer supports appeasement as a game-changer. The ongoing discussions regarding potential agreements between the West and the Iranian regime have generated strong opposition within the West itself. In the United States, the House and the Senate are almost unanimously opposed to any potential agreement with the mullahs. They are actively devising new plans to curtail appeasement. Most recently, on June 22nd, Senator Bill Hagerty and his colleagues presented a bill that mandates Congress to vote on any new deal with the Iranian regime.
- The Iranian Resistance has persevered for more than four decades and can no longer be ignored, regardless of the preferences of the West. It plays a decisive role in Iran’s international relations and internal politics. When a government is illegitimate, engages in repression, terrorism, and fundamentalism, and pursues nuclear and missile activities, it cannot be saved by the West’s multi-billion-dollar appeasement. The regime will never allocate the funds resulting from these agreements for the welfare of the people, which could potentially dampen public anger.
- The Iranian people unequivocally reject the mullahs’ regime. This is not a mere assertion but a recognized fact by both the regime and its internal factions.
Consequently, the explosive state of Iranian society does not permit the dictatorship to endure. Sooner or later, the people’s uprising will resurface, and the overthrow of the regime will become an achievable reality more than ever before.
No amount of concessions and appeasement can save Khamenei from being overthrown, as the path to overthrowing the regime has never relied on external factors. The duty and responsibility of overthrowing lies with the resistance and the Iranian people themselves, and it is undoubtedly on the verge of realization.