Shortly after Iran experienced nationwide protests in 2022, the regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, perceived the weakness and vulnerability of his regime in facing the people while losing its legitimacy. He felt a pressing need to inflame the destructive flames of war in Gaza to quell the explosive conditions within Iranian society and thwart potential uprisings.
Furthermore, he sought to utilize this warmongering strategy to address internal crises and disputes among the regime’s leaders and officials. Matters such as the previous parliamentary and assembly of experts elections, as well as the issue of his succession, loomed on the agenda. Without addressing them amidst an external crisis, new internal conflicts could arise within the regime.
According to the expectations of officials and experts close to him, this war was anticipated to follow the pattern of the 2006 Lebanon War (July 12, 2006 – August 14, 2006) lasting around one month, or the 2014 Gaza War (July 8 – August 26, 2014) lasting approximately seven weeks.
However, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which began on October 7, 2023, did not unfold according to the regime’s expectations. This discrepancy revealed fatal miscalculations, and their warmongering resulted in a strategic loss, as predicted by the Iranian Resistance.
Initially, some appeasers claimed during the early days of the Gaza war that there was no sign of involvement by religious fascism. However, as time passed, and with enlightenments from the Iranian Resistance, the main instigator of the war, dubbed the “Snake’s Head,” became a universal reference. Many experts and politicians now urge global powers to hold the regime accountable as the primary catalyst for Middle Eastern conflicts.
Six months after the events of October 7, when Israel attacked the regime’s consulate in Damascus, the Wall Street Journal reported: “Iran paid the first real price for its proxy warfare in the Middle East after Israel killed the leading Iranians sowing chaos in the region.”
This airstrike on the Iranian regime’s consulate marks one of the most significant actions thus far in a shadow war. According to some experts, testimonies suggest that the Iranian regime faces a critical decision and can no longer operate solely in the shadows.
With Israel’s direct attack on the regime’s consulate in Damascus, two general tendencies have emerged within the regime:
- A quick response and decisive action aimed at igniting war to escape the stalemate and pitfalls of warmongering, thus instilling fear and hesitation among its adversaries.
- Restraint and strategic patience to avoid falling into the trap of an all-out war with Israel and the USA.
However, all factions within the regime acknowledge that this attack marks a turning point. The common consensus is that the regime has become embroiled in the quagmire of warmongering. In other words, military action would only further entrench the regime in conflict, without the necessary strength and strategic foundation. Conversely, abandoning such actions would leave the regime vulnerable to future attacks and the advancement of opposing forces.
As the state-run daily Farhikhtegan noted: “When you refrain from taking action, they target larger objectives. In three, five, or six months, we may find ourselves discussing even more significant assassinations. This is not at all improbable.
“We must be cautious not to succumb to procrastination, faulty analyses, and a lack of preparedness for enemy actions. Otherwise, we may wake up in a few years to find ourselves facing a region where all equations are against us, and the axis of resistance has collapsed.”
Despite some elements within the regime advocating for strategic patience, others ridicule this approach. Farhikhtegan daily, quoting Mehdi Kharatian, stated:
“Strategic patience implies having a coherent and positive plan, coupled with the willingness to wait for its fruition. However, what some propose as strategic patience amounts to acting aimlessly, awaiting an apocalyptic event that may never occur. This is negligence, laziness, and a lack of zeal.”
Consequently, six months after initiating a devastating war in Gaza, which claimed thousands of defenseless Palestinian lives, religious fascism finds itself contending with its deadly aftermath. Undoubtedly, the events of the forthcoming days and months will further underscore this reality.
