Iran’s Regime Faces A Crisis of Legitimacy Amid Economic, Social, and Environmental Challenges

Iran’s regime grapples with an insurmountable crisis, spanning economic, social, environmental, and foreign relations domains. Economically, corruption and the regime’s expenses on malign activities have stunted growth, exacerbating unemployment and inflation. 

Socially, discontent simmers among a youthful population yearning for regime change. Environmental challenges, including water scarcity and pollution, compound the nation’s woes, impacting public health and exacerbating social unrest. 

The regime’s foreign relations are strained, marked by regional conflicts and international isolation, with nuclear tensions adding a layer of complexity. The regime’s response to internal dissent has been met with criticism, further alienating it from the international community. As Iran faces multifaceted challenges, the path to recovery requires a holistic approach that addresses economic instability, social grievances, environmental concerns, and diplomatic estrangement.

The current deficiencies within the regime have laid bare its true nature, revealing an alarming expansion of weaknesses that are rapidly accelerating. In a recent interview on the state-run platform, Khabar Online, Abbas Abdi, a member of the regime’s self-proclaimed reformist faction, shed light on the dire state of affairs.

Regarding the economic sphere, he pointed out, “In the upcoming year’s budget, the parliament proposes an increase of 25% in salaries, instead of the already ambitious 20%. This decision goes unquestioned, despite a staggering 40% inflation this year. How can we justify adding 25% under such economic strain?”

Questioning the purported economic growth, he highlighted its adverse impact on the populace, stating, “If there is economic growth, why isn’t it benefiting the people? Instead, it exacerbates the situation for many. Almost a third of the population, around 15 out of 40%, finds themselves moving in the opposite direction. The question remains, where does the surplus money go?”

When asked about the significance of the upcoming parliamentary elections, Abdi expressed skepticism, stating, “The current state of the election is irrelevant. Past elections brought representatives who lacked competence, leaving us to wonder about the parliament they’ve formed.”

Addressing the potential danger of people’s disillusionment with elections, he did not dismiss the possibility of protests, asserting that the regime must address this issue, or else face the people’s wrath, likening it to “a cornered cat that will inevitably attack.”

Regarding the root cause of the crisis, he emphasized that the parliament is just one aspect of a larger set of issues. Regarding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to purify the government, Abdi cautioned about the dangers of such a process, stating, “Purification is an exceedingly perilous undertaking, unprecedented in success elsewhere. It has occurred here, and I doubt it will significantly change by the March elections.”

On the topic of people’s participation in the elections, he forecasted a low turnout, estimating it not to exceed 35%, particularly in major cities. Abdi pointed out a silent current opposing the elections, predicting increased dissent during the actual voting.

He disclosed the existence of a faction within the regime, Khamenei’s principlist faction, which entirely rejects the idea of a republic. Abdi lamented that under such conditions, elections become a futile exercise, and the people are deprived of a meaningful choice.

Mocking this faction, he declared, “These individuals lack any belief, be it in God, the Prophet, or Islam – it’s all a farce to them.” He warned them that their continued actions jeopardize their own interests.

Criticizing the government’s incompetence, he highlighted its lack of a coherent plan to govern. Abdi pointed to the absurdity of a 7000-page growth program, stating, “Does anyone in the world present a 7000-page program? Seven lines are sufficient to convey your intentions. After 30 months, they claim only 23 or 27 items have been implemented. Haven’t you outlined this before? They are devoid of any substantial plans.”

In summary, Iran’s regime is facing a multitude of crises, including economic instability, social unrest, environmental issues, and foreign relations challenges. The government’s attempts to maintain a powerful image through warmongering and terrorism are failing to hide its inability to address these problems. 

Abbas Abdi’s recent interview on Khabar Online further exposes the regime’s weaknesses, highlighting the economic mismanagement, lack of competent representatives in parliament, and the potential for protests due to the people’s disillusionment with the elections. 

The existence of a faction within the regime that rejects the idea of a republic and the government’s incompetence in presenting a coherent plan further compound the crisis. The low estimated turnout in the upcoming elections and the silent current opposing them indicate the regime’s declining legitimacy.