Tehran’s latest military theatrics mask a deep crisis of legitimacy and a growing fear of nationwide unrest.
The Iranian regime’s recent escalation—including an alarming surge in executions and renewed insistence on hardline policies such as mandatory hijab—signals a government gripped not by foreign threats but by domestic fear. In this context, the IRGC’s large-scale missile exercise is less a display of strategic strength than a desperate attempt to shift attention away from a profound crisis of legitimacy at home.
The missile drill, conducted in the Gulf on December 5, 2025, marked the regime’s second major military action since the June war. State outlets framed the launch of dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles as a response to “foreign threats,” yet the timing and tone suggest a very different motive. This was a show for internal consumption—a spectacle meant to project stability where little exists.
According to international reporting, the IRGC fired Ghadr-110, Ghadr-380, and Ghadr-360 cruise missiles, as well as the 303 ballistic missile from inside Iran toward the Sea of Oman.
IRGC drones simultaneously carried out simulated strikes on mock enemy bases. The drill began near the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most sensitive energy corridors—and came only months after the 12-day conflict in which the United States joined Israel in attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Almost simultaneously, the IRGC staged another drill in East Azerbaijan Province under the banner of “counter-terrorism,” attended by members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The state-run PressTV framed it as a warning to adversaries. Meanwhile, regional media reported heightened political tension: U.S. special envoy Tom Barrack was said to have informed Iraq’s prime minister that Israel is preparing an operation aimed at fully disarming Hezbollah.
He also warned that if Iranian-backed militias in Iraq intervened, Israel would strike targets on Iraqi soil. American officials had previously cautioned Baghdad to prevent attacks by Iran-aligned groups on Israel or U.S. forces, with the U.S. defense secretary reiterating that Washington would respond to any such involvement, particularly in Syria.
While the regime surrounds itself with talk of imminent war, independent assessments paint a very different picture. The Institute for the Study of War notes that Iran is facing severe internal challenges while attempting to rebuild its damaged military capacity after the extensive losses it suffered in the June conflict.
Reports point to mounting disarray, mistrust, and fear of foreign penetration within the military and security structures. This deepening internal anxiety—rather than any credible foreign threat—appears to be the real driver behind Tehran’s intensified military posturing.
Inside the country, the contrast is stark. Instead of seeking the national cohesion it conspicuously lacks, the regime has doubled down on repression. Record-high executions, aggressive crackdowns, and ideological policing serve as its primary tools for survival.
The regime’s sudden retreat from plans to raise gasoline prices further exposes its fear—not of external enemies, but of an uprising from within. Rising fuel prices have historically triggered mass protests, and the regime is acutely aware that society today is far more combustible.
Foreign threats can destroy missiles, bases, and infrastructure. But internal threats strike at the very existence of the ruling class—and it is this existential fear that shapes the regime’s behavior. The IRGC’s missile display is therefore best understood not as a strategic maneuver but as a political one: an attempt to cloak weakness in the language of strength.
Behind the roar of missiles lies a simple truth. The regime is not preparing for war abroad. It is preparing for rebellion at home.
