As the Iranian regime gears up for another round of carefully orchestrated elections for its parliament and the Assembly of Experts in March, mounting questions about its legitimacy are coming to the forefront. Even staunch supporters of Velayat-e al-Faqih (the supreme leader) are beginning to question the credibility of these elections. This signals a clear legitimacy crisis for Khamenei’s authoritarian regime.
A glance at the underlying principles of the regime’s constitution elucidates why we refer to these as engineered elections. The preamble of the regime’s constitution establishes the supreme leader as the:
Head of state and the highest political and religious authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran, superseding the president. The armed forces, judiciary, state television, and other pivotal government bodies such as the Guardian Council and Expediency Discernment Council are under the jurisdiction of the Supreme Leader. According to the constitution, the Supreme Leader sets out the general policies of the Islamic Republic (article 110), overseeing the legislature, the judiciary, and the executive branches (article 57).
Additionally, the Supreme Leader has the final say on matters concerning the economy, the environment, foreign policy, education, national planning, and various other governance aspects in Iran. Khamenei also holds sway over the level of transparency in elections and has the authority to dismiss and reinstate presidential cabinet appointees.
Moreover, the Supreme Leader serves as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the de facto head of the three branches of the state—the Judiciary, the Legislature, and the Executive.
Given this preamble and the extensive powers vested in one individual by the regime’s constitution, a pertinent question arises: Is there room for any genuine and democratic elections within the Velayat al-Faqih regime?
The founder of the regime, Ruhollah Khomeini, who also served as its first supreme leader, articulated the duties and boundless authorities of the Velayat-e Faqih: “The Velayat-e Faqih must exercise mastery over all matters, even the personal affairs of individuals. Because the role of the Velayat-e Faqih is akin to that of a guardian (akin to a father or grandfather according to traditional jurisprudence) over a minor. This authority extends to the extent that even if a group reaches a consensus on a matter, but the Velayat-e Faqih holds a contrary opinion, his opinion prevails.”
In light of this, Mehdi Nasiri, a former editor and managing director of the Kayhan newspaper, commented on the regime’s elections, stating: “There are numerous reasons why elections are merely a facade, but the most significant reason is the principle of the absolute authority of the Velayat-e Faqih enshrined in the constitution of the Islamic Republic. According to this principle, the leader of the Islamic Republic stands above all laws and even the constitution itself.”
He further emphasized: “The question arises: What purpose do elections serve, and what do they achieve? Apart from serving as a facade for an authoritarian regime.”
Previously, only the Iranian Resistance dared to criticize the regime’s elections, labeling them as sham elections. However, confronted with a growing legitimacy crisis and dwindling public participation, even officials within the regime are acknowledging this reality.
Before the official announcement of his disqualification from the election race, the former president of the regime, Hassan Rouhani, confided to some of his associates that following the 2022 protests, Khamenei realized he had nothing more to lose, thus the turnout for these sham elections was no longer a priority as only a minority would participate. Similar to previous elections, Khamenei now faces an even more precarious situation, leading to the disqualification of numerous incumbent officials, such as 26 current members of parliament, who were barred from registering for the elections.
The rationale behind Khamenei’s decision to purge the government is straightforward: his apprehension regarding a potential uprising among the millions of impoverished and unemployed populace. This is evidenced by the repeated calls from the regime’s Friday prayer leaders urging people to participate in the elections in recent months.
In a recently published article by the National Council Resistance of Iran (NCRI) discussing Khamenei’s motivations behind holding elections, it states: “Iran’s regime is grappling with a complex web of interconnected crises, each with the potential to profoundly affect the others, thereby jeopardizing the regime’s stability. Since 2017, the regime has faced imminent collapse amidst numerous popular uprisings, managing to survive primarily through harsh repression and lack of international accountability.
“Economic and social upheaval, coupled with longstanding political grievances, have heightened concerns among the ruling elite about the possibility of a major upheaval. Additionally, Tehran perceives regional and global isolation as a significant threat that could exacerbate domestic unrest and undermine the morale of regime forces.
“To navigate these crises, Khamenei relies heavily on the armed forces and a diminishing circle of loyal officials who dutifully carry out his orders without question. Operating on a precarious edge, the regime cannot afford any missteps or criticism.”
In the regime’s history, there has never been a time when its supreme leader personally convened numerous meetings with regime officials under various pretexts in a short span of time to underscore the importance of elections and urge everyone to participate as a religious duty.
Thus, when the regime anticipates an imminent uprising among the marginalized and unemployed, there should be unanimity at the apex of the sovereignty hierarchy. Therefore, resorting to past methods and discarding low-level and unimportant elements does not eradicate this threat. Khamenei had no recourse but to pursue purification, albeit at a considerable cost.
For years, the Iranian populace has distanced itself from the regime and all its factions. Consequently, Khamenei has taken the final steps towards purification, with his support coming from the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards.
However, this strategy is inherently fragile. As the base of power dwindles, the pyramid of authority reaches a point where there is no longer a foundation, fundamentally altering its nature.
