Lebanon and Syria haven’t managed to finalise this dispute, but, as with many conflicts in the region, Iran may actually be to blame.
The reason is related to Hezbollah’s weaponry. If Shebaa Farms’ status remains undetermined, then Syria and Iran can claim that UN Resolutions 1559 and 1701 (confiscating illegal arms) have not been fully implemented.
There are many people working to resolve the border dispute, with Western sources in Beirut pointing out that Israel has reached out to Lebanon on multiple occasions, through the US and Russia, to solve the dispute and agree to borderlines.
While the US is a long-term ally of Israel, you can see Russia’s more recent support in Syria, where it has worked to keep Iranian troops away from Israel’s border and from the Golan Heights.
So Iran is now in a tough position, with the looming possibility of its Lebanese Hezbollah proxy building relations with Russia and possibly withdrawing from Syria in order to redraw the boundary lines in Lebanon’s favour. After all, if Lebanon does not move to resolve the border crisis, then it may be left out of any international protection.
It seems likely that these agreements being reached regarding Iran in South Syria and the Lebanon-Israel border will not be separate, meaning that Iran’s influence in Syria and then in Lebanon will be limited.
Iran will not accept this willingly and even the Hezbollah leaders have been speaking out against this.
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah recently said that only Bashar al Assad can force Hezbollah to leave Syria, after realising that its dangerous for him to withdraw troops after sacrificing so much, while even Berri said that the withdrawal of troops would not take place before the liberation of Syria.
But the truth is that they don’t have many options left. They can either start a war with Israel, which will spread from Syria to Lebanon and result in a loss for Iran, or start making some concessions in order to gain at least some benefits from it.
Even if Iran and its allies seek not to link the southern Syria and the Israel-Lebanon border dispute issues, they are incredibly intertwined and will not be separated easily.
It should be noted that the only way to remove the Iranian Regime from these regional conflicts is through regime change, led by the people. This will be a key discussion topic at the Free Iran Gathering in Paris on June 30.