The head of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Research Center at Shiraz University, Mohammad Jaafar Nazem Al-Sadat, has raised alarms about Iran’s water crisis.
Despite recent rainfall levels approaching the historical average in some provinces, Nazem Al-Sadat emphasized that this is insufficient to meet the needs of Iran’s current population.
He highlighted that Iran’s water resources can adequately support only 40 to 50 million people, far below the current population.
Nazem Al-Sadat explained that while some provinces received near-average rainfall this spring, this does not compensate for the significant depletion of water reserves. “We are constantly facing water stress and subsidence,” he noted, pointing to the ongoing issue of soil losing its water-holding capacity. Iran has struggled with severe water shortages and environmental crises for over a decade.
Despite these pressing issues, two senior officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently advocated for a population increase at the ‘Population Youth Conference’.
IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami warned that a declining population growth rate could lead to societal aging, which he views as detrimental.
Mohammad Reza Naqdi, another IRGC official, criticized the reluctance of Iranians to marry and have children, calling the decreasing population a critical issue.
This push for population growth aligns with the policy initiated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the early 2010s, aiming for a population of 150 million.
Discriminatory Water Policies and Environmental Impact
A recent study published in Progress in Physical Geography (Sage Journal) by Allan Hassaniyan has highlighted the discriminatory nature of Iran’s water management policies, particularly their adverse effects on ethnic minority regions.
The report indicates that nepotism and ethnic favoritism influence water supply decisions, resulting in the diversion of rivers and construction of dams to benefit central industrialized areas at the expense of peripheral regions such as Kurdistan, Khuzestan, and Baluchistan.
The exploitation of water resources from these “donor basins” has led to severe consequences for ethnic minority communities, including drought, soil erosion, dust storms, health problems, mass migration, and unemployment.
Official data cited in the study shows land subsidence in 14 provinces and an increase in dust storms causing respiratory issues, directly linked to the state’s water management practices.
The report criticizes Iran’s water transfer policies for promoting unsustainable development and exacerbating environmental injustice. “Iran’s water policies discriminate against certain ethnic groups and regions, leading to environmental injustice and marginalization of peripheral areas,” stated the lead author of the study.
This has resulted in significant socio-ecological deterioration in areas inhabited by Kurds, Arabs, Gilaks, Turkmens, and Baluchis.
Call for Policy Reform
The authors of the study call for urgent policy reforms to address these issues, advocating for equitable distribution of water resources that considers the needs of all regions and communities, regardless of their ethnic or geographic backgrounds.
“Environmental protection and the well-being of all citizens should be at the forefront of Iran’s water management policies,” urged a co-author of the study.
As climate change exacerbates water scarcity, the study underscores the urgent need for Iran to adopt a more inclusive and sustainable approach to water management to prevent further marginalization of vulnerable communities and ensure environmental justice.
